Prognosis of the development of pneumonia in children at the outbreak of respiratory mycoplasmosis

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Abstract


Aim. To identify risk factors for mycoplasma pneumonia at the outbreak of respiratory mycoplasmosis in the children’s collective using a comprehensive statistical analysis. Methods. 120 children aged 12-15 years from the focus of respiratory mycoplasmosis outbreak were observed. They were divided into two groups: study group - 33 children with mycoplasma pneumonia, and control group - 56 children from the focus of infection, 14 of which during the observation period had no disease simptoms, and 42 children had other forms of respiratory mycoplasmosis. Results. 6 factors influencing the development of mycoplasma pneumonia were identified in children from the focus of respiratory mycoplasmosis outbreak. The correlation analysis was performed and one-dimensional models of the chance of developing pneumonia were constructed by calculating odds ratios. Past history of pneumonia increases the risk for pneumonia by 23.46 times, passive smoking in a child - by 2.77 times. At the same time, emergency prevention with immunotropic drugs reduces the risk for pneumonia by 8.93 times, daily walking - by 3.31 times, walking for more than 2 hours - by 3.83 times, increasing fruit in the diet - by 3.09 times and taking multivitamins - by 2.56 times compared to cases when these measures were not taken. The binary logistic regression was calculated to build a multidimensional research model. The sensitivity of this model was 87.88%, specificity - 91.07%. Conclusion. At the outbreak of respiratory mycoplasmosis the risk factors for the development of mycoplasmal pneumonia are pneumonia in past medical history, smoking in a child’s family; preventive measures are long-term daily exposure to fresh air, emergency prevention with immunotropic, complex multivitamin preparations with trace elements and lactic acid bacteria, dietary intake corrected for fruit intake.

S P Kokoreva

oleg.razuvaev@gmail.com
Voronezh State Medical University named after N.N. Burdenko Voronezh, Russia

O A Razuvaev

oleg.razuvaev@gmail.com
Voronezh State Medical University named after N.N. Burdenko Voronezh, Russia

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