Известия Российской академии наук. Физика атмосферы и океанаИзвестия Российской академии наук. Физика атмосферы и океана0002-3515The Russian Academy of Sciences1787910.31857/S0002-351555594-102Research ArticleTsunami hazard assessment at Mediterranean coast of EgyptZaytsevA. I.aizaytsev@mail.ruBabeykoA. Yu.babeyko@gfz-potsdam.deKurkinA. A.aakurkin@gmail.comYalcinerA.yalciner@metu.edu.trPelinovskyE. N.pelinovsky@gmail.comNizhny Novgorod State Technical University n.a. R.E. AlekseevSpecial Research Bureau for Automation of Marine Researches, Far Eastern Branch of RASGFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesMiddle East Technical UniversityFederal Research Center Institute of Applied Physics of the RASNational Research University – Higher School of EconomicsUniversity of Southern Queensland251120195559410224112019Copyright © 2019, Russian academy of sciences2019<p>Possibilities of forecasting of a tsunami characteristics for areas with small base of historical tsunami are discussed. The PTHA method (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment), which cornerstone the statistical analysis of real and predictive earthquakes which number is rather big, with the subsequent calculation of waves of a Tsunami from possible earthquakes is for this purpose used. This method for assessment of long-term tsunami danger on the Mediterranean coast of Egypt is used. It is shown that the predicted wave heights change along the coast that is caused by heterogeneity of topography of a coastal zone and features of the chart of radiation of a tsunami in the sea. The predicted wave heights for 1000 years change within 0.83.4 m.</p>tsunamilong-term forecastPTHA methodshallow-water equationsnumerical modelling of tsunami propagationMediterraneanEgyptцунамидолговременный прогнозметод PTHAуравнения мелкой водычисленное моделирование распространения цунамиСредиземное мореЕгипет[Go Ch.N., Kaistrenko V.M., Simonov K.V. A two-parameter scheme for tsunami hazard zoning // Marine Geodesy. 1985. 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