Geomagnetism and AeronomyGeomagnetism and AeronomyГеомагнетизм и аэрономия0016-79403034-5022The Russian Academy of Sciences68696610.31857/S0016794025030028EROVYDArticlesСтатьиResearch ArticleForecasting the Probability and Magnitude of Solar Proton Events Using Flares and Ejections DataПрогноз вероятности и величины солнечных протонных событий на основе данных о вспышках и выбросахShlykN. S.ШлыкН. С.
Russian Federation
nshlyk@izmiran.ruBelovA. V.БеловА. В.
Russian Federation
nshlyk@izmiran.ruAbuninaM. A.АбунинаМ. А.
Russian Federation
nshlyk@izmiran.ruPushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation of the Russian Academy of SciencesИнститут земного магнетизма, ионосферы и распространения радиоволн им. Н.В. Пушкова РАН040720256533143230807202508072025Copyright ©; 2025, Russian Academy of SciencesCopyright ©; 2025, Российская академия наук2025Russian Academy of SciencesРоссийская академия наукhttps://journals.eco-vector.com/0016-7940/article/view/686966

The paper studies various characteristics of solar flares and coronal mass ejections that led or did not lead to the registration of solar proton events near the Earth for the period from 1996 to 2023. A detailed catalog of events was compiled, regression dependences of the parameters of solar sources and proton flux enhancements near the Earth were obtained. A new “proton index” of the event was proposed, and calculations were made of the probability of solar proton events and expected fluxes of particles with different energies. Longitudinal distributions of various parameters characterizing proton flux enhancements were also obtained. The established patterns will form the basis of an empirical model that allows estimating the probability of high-energy particle arrival at the Earth and the expected levels and times of registering the maxima of increases in fluxes of protons with energies > 10 and > 100 MeV.

В работе исследуются различные характеристики солнечных вспышек и корональных выбросов массы, приведших или не приведших к регистрации у Земли солнечных протонных событий за период с 1996 по 2023 гг. Составлен подробный каталог событий, получены регрессионные зависимости параметров солнечных источников и возрастаний потока протонов около Земли. Предложен новый “индекс протонности” события, на основе которого произведены расчеты вероятности регистрации солнечных протонных событий и ожидаемых потоков частиц разных энергий. Также получены долготные распределения различных параметров, характеризующих возрастания потоков протонов. Установленные закономерности будут положены в основу эмпирической модели, позволяющей оценивать вероятность прихода высокоэнергичных частиц к Земле и ожидаемые уровни и времена регистрации максимумов возрастаний потоков протонов с энергиями > 10 и > 100 МэВ.

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