Evaluation of the economic effectiveness of influenza vaccination in the Russian Federation as a result of prevented cases of morbidity and mortality

Introduction. Influenza remains a global public health problem due to high morbidity, associated mortality, and economic losses. Vaccination is a key tool for the disease control.The purpose of the study. To assess the epidemiological and economic effectiveness of influenza vaccination programs in the Russian Federation from 2010 to 2022 through analysis of prevented cases of morbidity, mortality, and related losses.Materials and methods. A retrospective analysis of data from Rosstat and Rospotrebnadzor was conducted. Regression modeling was applied to evaluate the association between vaccination coverage and influenza and influenza related morbidity/mortality with a one-year lag. Economic effectiveness was assessed according to the guidelines MR 5.1.0095–14 "Calculation of actual and prevented economic losses from mortality, morbidity, and disability of the population associated with the negative impact of environmental factors".Results. At the national level, mortality ranged from 0.22 per 100,000 population in 2011 to 0.42 per 100,000 in 2014; the lowest morbidity was recorded in 2014 (9.02 per 100,000), and the highest in 2011 (216.5 per 100,000). Statistically significant inverse correlations (p < 0.05) were found between vaccination coverage and the morbidity/mortality rates of the considered nosologies. Model-based estimates indicated vaccination to prevent up to 92.1 thousand influenza cases annually among children, 1.772 million influenza-associated ARVI cases, and 1,432 influenza-associated pneumonia deaths among adults. The cost-benefit ratio of influenza vaccination campaigns ranged from 2.21 (2019) to 3.48 rubles per 1 ruble invested (2011). The total prevented economic losses were estimated at 54.49 billion rubles in 2011 and 102.48 billion rubles in 2019.Research limitations. The study’s limitations include the set of analyzed data, the mathematical modeling methods used, and the estimates of influenza-associated morbidity and mortality.Conclusion. The findings confirm that influenza vaccination programs are effective medical and economic strategies that significantly contribute to reducing the disease burden and strengthening public health in Russia.Compliance with ethical standards. The study does not require the approval of a biomedical ethics committee of other documents (the study was performed using publicly available official statistics).Contribution of the authors: Zaitseva N.V. — research concept and design, editing, approval of the final version of the article; Kleyn S.V. — editing, writing the text, approval of the final version of the article; Glukhikh M.V. — statistical data processing, collection and processing material, writing the text. All authors are responsible for the integrity of all parts of the manuscript and approval of the manuscript final version.Funding. The study had no sponsorship.Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.Received: September 3, 2025 / Accepted: October 8, 2025 / Published: December 17, 2025

influenza, incidence, mortality, prevented cases, Russian regions, vaccine prevention, vaccination, economic efficiency