Prediction and assessment of somatic risk factors affecting the course of pregnancy


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Abstract

An important public health goal is to increase the number of successful births and to carry out a systemic approach aimed at reducing risk factors for pregnant women and women who have already given birth. This work is aimed at building a statistical model for assessing and forecasting risk factors for the following 5 years. By applying the linear regression method and time series analysis methods the presence of trends in the dynamics of the disease was determined with a high level of significance, the forecast with confidence intervals was built for the disorders such as varicose veins, diseases of the urinary system and respiratory system, as well as complications associated directly with an increased body mass index were considered. The obtained data has shown the need for the development of a monitoring system that will take into account the positive growth dynamics of mentioned risk factors.

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About the authors

B. A Rimskaya

Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology

Dolgoprudny

I. K Chudinov

Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology; Center for Theoretical Problems of Physicochemical Pharmacology RAS

Dolgoprudny; Moscow

V. Yu Samokhin

Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology; Institute for Information Transmission Problems RAS (Kharkevich Institute)

Dolgoprudny; Moscow

M. M Murashko

Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology

Dolgoprudny

T. P Vasilieva

N.A. Semashko National Research Institute of Public Health

Professor, MD Moscow

M. D Vasiliev

N.A. Semashko National Research Institute of Public Health

Candidate of Medical Sciences Moscow

A. V Melerzanov

N.A. Semashko National Research Institute of Public Health

Email: melerzanov.av@mipt.ru
Candidate of Medical Sciences Moscow

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