Economics and Mathematical MethodsEconomics and Mathematical MethodsЭкономика и математические методы0424-73883034-6177The Russian Academy of Sciences65335310.31857/S042473880024876-2ArticlesСтатьиResearch ArticleOil in the age of coronavirus: Hysteria or appropriate fall?Нефть в эпоху коронавируса: истерия или закономерное падение рынка?NeppAleksandr N.НеппАлександр Николаевич
Russian Federation
emm@cemi.rssi.ruZykovAleksander S.ЗыковАлександр Сергеевич
Russian Federation
emm@cemi.rssi.ruEgorovaYulia VadimovnaЕгороваЮлия Вадимовна
Russian Federation
emm@cemi.rssi.ruUral Federal UniversityУральский федеральный университет15032023591VOL 59, NO1 (2023)ТОМ 59, №1 (2023)486403022025Copyright ©; 2023, Ekonomika i matematicheskie metodyCopyright ©; 2023, Экономика и математические методы2023Ekonomika i matematicheskie metodyЭкономика и математические методыhttps://journals.eco-vector.com/0424-7388/article/view/653353

We look at the oil price fall in the beginning of 2020 and the effects of coronavirus and the attention towards it on these prices. Such a fall was observed at multiple markets simultaneously with the spread of coronavirus and the panic around it, and oil market wasn’t an exception. Using OLS time series models, we investigate — what was the main reason behind such a fall — the coronavirus pandemic itself or rather the attention towards it. We prove the absence of straight effects of the COVID-19 itself on oil prices. At the same time we find significant negative impact of the attention towards COVID-19 on the Internet search on the oil prices. We investigate the role of the OPEC in mitigating the negative impact of coronavirus and the attention towards it. We found that after the OPEC summit both the number of Covid cases and the attention towards the disease lost its influence on oil prices. Our paper is relevant for the behavioral finance researchers, as well as for those who look at the influence of informational shocks on different markets and particularly, on the oil market and at the effect of the COVID-19 on the economy.

В работе рассматривается влияние пандемии и внимания к ней на падение цен на нефть в начале 2020 г. Используя модели временных рядов, мы проверяем, что способствовало такому падению в большей мере — непосредственно сам коронавирус либо интерес к нему в социальных сетях и интернет-поисковиках. Мы показываем отсутствие прямых влияний со стороны COVID-19 на рынок нефти и обнаруживаем значимые отрицательные последствия для рынка нефти в результате внимания в сети Интернет и интернет-поисковиках к COVID-19. Также исследуется роль ОПЕК в смягчении негативного воздействия коронавируса и внимания к нему: после саммита внимание к коронавирусу в сети Интернет и активность интернет-запросов в большинстве случаев перестали создавать эффекты. Наша работа может представлять интерес для исследователей поведенческих финансов, а также влияния информационных шоков на рынки, в частности на рынок нефти и оценки влияния коронавируса на экономику, равно как и для регуляторов и непосредственных участников данных рынков.

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