Доклады Академии наукДоклады Академии наук0869-5652The Russian Academy of Sciences1621410.31857/S0869-5652488174-80Research ArticleContribution of natural and anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere from the territory of Russia to global climate change in the 21st centuryDenisovS. N.mokhov@ifaran.ruEliseevA. V.mokhov@ifaran.ruMokhovI. I.<p>Аcademician of the Russian Academy of Sciences</p>mokhov@ifaran.ruA.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of SciencesLomonosov Moscow State UniversityMoscow Institute of Physics and Technology23092019488174802209201922092019Copyright © 2019, Russian academy of sciences2019<p>Obtained the estimates of the contribution of anthropogenic and natural GHG emissions into the atmosphere from the territory of Russia to global climate change under various scenarios of anthropogenic impact in the 21st century. Accounting for changes in climatic conditions can strongly influence the indicators of the impact of various greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system, especially at large time horizons. Moreover, depending on the planning horizon, the role of the natural fluxes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere from terrestrial ecosystems may change. Currently, terrestrial ecosystems in the Russian regions affect global temperature in both directions: absorbing CO<sub>2</sub>from the atmosphere contributes to slowing its growth, and emitting CH<sub>4</sub>into the atmosphere accelerates warming. The net effect of the natural fluxes of these greenhouse gases from the Russian regions in modern conditions helps to slow down warming. This net effect is increasing in the first half of the 21st century, and after reaching a maximum (depending on the anthropogenic emission scenario) decreases by the end of the century under all the considered anthropogenic impact scenarios due to an increase in natural CH<sub>4</sub>emissions and a decrease in CO<sub>2</sub>absorption by terrestrial ecosystems.</p>carbon cycleGHG emissionsregional modelingNorthern Eurasiaуглеродный циклэмиссии парниковых газоврегиональное моделированиеСеверная Евразия[Мохов И.И. // Изв. РАН. Физика атмосферы и океана. 2017. Т. 53. № 5. С. 624-640.][Shine K.P., Fuglestvedt J.S., Hailemariam K., Stuber N. // Clim. Change. 2005. V. 68. I. 3. P. 281-302.][Кароль И.Л., Киселёв А.А., Фролькис В.А. // Изв. РАН. Физика атмосферы и океана. 2011. Т. 47. № 4. С. 451-466.][Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner et al. (eds.) // Cambridge/NY: Cambridge University Press. 2013. 1535 p.][Joos F., Roth R., Fuglestvedt J.S. et al. // Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2013. V. 13. 2793-2825.][Reisinger A., Meinshausen M., Manning M. // Environ. Res. Lett. 2011. V. 6. 024020.][Eliseev A.V., Mokhov I.I. // Adv. Atmos. Sci. 2011. V. 28. № 5. P. 1215-1232.][Мохов И.И., Елисеев А.В. // ДАН. 2012. Т. 443. № 6. С. 732-736.][Денисов C. Н., Елисеев А. В., Мохов И. И., Аржанов М.М. // Изв. РАН. Физика атмосферы и океана. 2015. Т. 51. № 5. С. 543-549.][Денисов С.Н., Аржанов М.М., Елисеев А.В., Мохов И.И. // ДАН. 2011. Т. 441. № 5. C. 685-688.][Holmes C.D., Prather M.J., Søvde O.A., Myhre G. // Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2013. V. 13. P. 285-302.][Schuur E.A.G., McGuire A.D., Schadel C., et al. // Nature. 2015. V. 520. № 7546. P. 171-179.][Елисеев А.В. // Фундаментал. и прикл. климатол. 2018. Т. 1. С. 52-70.][Schneider von Deimling T., Grosse G., Strauss J. et al. // Biogeosciences. 2015. V. 12. № 11. P. 3469-3488.][Malakhova V.V., Eliseev A.V. // Glob. Planet. Change. 2017. V. 157. P. 18-25.]