Vestnik of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesVestnik of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesВестник Дальневосточного отделения Российской академии наук0869-7698The Russian Academy of Sciences67602810.31857/S0869769824040015IRWLDYEarth and Environment SciencesНауки о Земле и окружающей средеReview ArticleGreenhouse gases balance and climate change: role of permafrost degradation in the ArcticБаланс парниковых газов и изменение климата: роль деградации мерзлоты в Арктикеhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1741-6734SemiletovIgor P.СемилетовИгорь Петрович
Russian Federation

Corresponding Member of RAS, Doctor of Sciences in Geography, International Center of the Far-Eastern and Arctic Seas (named by admiral S.O. Makarov)

член-корреспондент РАН, доктор географических наук, Международный Центр Дальневосточных и Арктических морей им. адмирала С.О. Макарова

ipsemiletov@gmail.comShakhovaNatalia E.ШаховаНаталья Евгеньевна
Russian Federation

Doctor of Sciences in Geology and Mineralogy

доктор геолого-минералогических наук

nataliaeshakhova@gmail.comV. I. Il’ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute, FEB RASТихоокеанский океанологический институт им. В. И. Ильичева ДВО РАНSakhalin State University/SakhTECHСахалинский государственный университет-СахалинTECHM. A. Sadovskу Institute of Geosphere DynamicsИнститут динамики геосфер им. академика М. А. Садовского РАН15082024454328022025Copyright ©; 2024, Russian Academy of SciencesCopyright ©; 2024, Российская академия наук2024Russian Academy of SciencesРоссийская академия наукhttps://journals.eco-vector.com/0869-7698/article/view/676028

One of the most prominent problems of modern geochemistry and climatology is the understanding of the patterns of migration of the main greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). The purpose of this work is a brief review of the widely accepted concept of the dominant role of the anthropogenic factor in climate change, which is considered in the paleo-context of changes in natural climate cycling over the past hundreds of thousands of years, and in present time. It is shown that to understand the functioning of the climate system, it is necessary to take into account the geological factor – changes in the state of terrestrial and subsea permafrost: the huge reservoirs of ancient carbon, which is included in biogeochemical cycles due to permafrost degradation in warm geological epochs. This leads to imbalance in the carbon cycling, which manifests itself in massive emissions of CO2 and CH4 into the atmosphere. During cold geological epochs, carbon accumulates in permafrost, which stores amounts of carbon exceeding the carbon exchange between atmosphere, biosphere, land and ocean. Considering the Arctic region as the key climate “kitchen” we state that present time is characterized by unique long-lasting warming after the Holocene optimum, which occurred in the northern hemisphere approximately 5–6 thousand years ago. It contradicts with the Milankovich’ 105-kyrs cycling: after the Holocene optimum, the geological ice-epoch should have occurred, which should have led to about 100-meters sea level lowering and the transformation of the shallow Arctic shelf into land. However, warming has continued and the level of the World Ocean continues to rise, which has already led to an extended high sea level on the Arctic shelf – unique in geological history. This caused the lasting contact of relatively warm bottom waters (~(–1) °C) and frozen sediments (~(–25) °C) of the Arctic shelf for 5–6 thousand years longer than in previous warm geological epochs, which led to the progressive degradation of subsea permafrost, formation of deep or through taliks (zones of melted permafrost) and destabilization of Arctic shallow hydrates. It is shown that the increasing runoff of Siberian rivers, mobilization, transport, and transformation of terrestrial organic matter in the Arctic land–shelf system determines the sedimentation and biogeochemistry of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf – the broadest and shallowest shelf in the World Ocean, which makes up more than 70% of the Northern Sea Route area. This review paper presents selected key results obtained by the authors and their colleagues over the past 30 years, and identifies a number of problems facing modern climatology.

Одной из наиболее актуальных проблем современной геохимии и климатологии является вопрос о закономерностях миграции основных парниковых газов, двуокиси углерода (СО2) и метана (СН4). Целью данной работы является краткое изложение принятой концепции о доминирующей роли антропогенного фактора в изменениях климата, которая рассматривается в контексте изменения природной климатической цикличности за последние сотни тысяч лет и в наше время. Показано, что для понимания функционирования климатической системы необходимо учитывать геологический фактор – изменение состояния наземной и подводной мерзлоты: крупнейшие резервуары древнего углерода, который включается в биогеохимические циклы вследствие деградации мерзлоты в теплые геологические эпохи. Это приводит к нарушению цикла углерода, которое проявляется в массированных выбросах СО2 и СН4 в атмосферу. В холодные геологические эпохи идет аккумуляция углерода в мерзлоте, которая запасает количества углерода, соизмеримые или даже превышающие быстрые обменные резервуары углерода на нашей планете (атмосфера, биосфера). На примере Арктического региона показана важнейшая, и пока неучтенная, климатическая роль деградации мерзлоты в период после оптимума голоцена, который наступил в Северном полушарии примерно 5–6 тыс. лет назад. Согласно известной климатической 105-тысячелетней цикличности по Миланковичу, после оптимума голоцена должно было наступить очередное похолодание, ведущее к понижению уровня моря и превращению мелководного арктического шельфа в сушу. Однако потепление продолжилось, и уровень Мирового океана продолжает повышаться, что уже привело к беспрецедентному в геологической истории продолжительному высокому стоянию уровня моря на арктическом шельфе. Это стало причиной контакта относительно теплых придонных вод и мерзлых осадков арктического шельфа на 5–6 тыс. лет дольше, чем в предыдущие теплые геологические эпохи, что привело к прогрессирующей деградации подводной мерзлоты и дестабилизации арктических мелководных гидратов. Показано, что возрастающий сток сибирских рек, мобилизация, транспорт и трансформация наземного органического вещества в арктической системе суша–шельф определяет седиментацию и экологию мелководного шельфа морей Восточной Арктики, которая составляет более 70% акватории Северного морского пути. В данной обзорной работе приведены избранные результаты, полученные авторами с коллегами за последние 30 лет, и обозначен ряд проблем, которые стоят перед современной климатологией.

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