Vestnik of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesVestnik of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesВестник Дальневосточного отделения Российской академии наук0869-7698The Russian Academy of Sciences67603710.31857/S0869769824040022IRKHNMEarth and Environment SciencesНауки о Земле и окружающей средеResearch ArticleDiffiiculties in the anthropogenic concept of global warming and the seismogenic trigger mechanism of climate changeТрудности обоснования антропогенной концепции глобального потепления и сейсмогенно-триггерный механизм климатических измененийhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8033-8452LobkovskyLeopold I.ЛобковскийЛеопольд Исаевич
Russian Federation

Academician of RAS, Doctor of Sciences in Physics and Mathematics, Professor, International Center of the Far-Eastern and Arctic Seas (named by admiral S.O. Makarov)

академик РАН, доктор физико-математических наук, профессор, Международный Центр Дальневосточных и Арктических морей им. адмирала С.О. Макарова

llobkovsky@ocean.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1741-6734SemiletovIgor P.СемилетовИгорь Петрович
Russian Federation

Corresponding Member of RAS, Doctor of Sciences in Geology and Mineralogy, Professor, International Center of the Far-Eastern and Arctic Seas (named by admiral S.O. Makarov)

член-корреспондент РАН, доктор геолого-минералогических наук, профессор, Международный Центр Дальневосточных и Арктических морей им. адмирала С.О. Макарова

ipsemiletov@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7793-5555BaranovAlexey A.БарановАлексей Андреевич
Russian Federation

Candidate of Sciences in Physics and Mathematics

кандидат физико-математических наук

aabaranov@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7301-7183VladimirovaIrina S.ВладимироваИрина Сергеевна
Russian Federation

Candidate of Sciences in Physics and Mathematics

кандидат физико-математических наук

vladis@gsras.ruShirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of SciecesИнститут океанологии им. П. П. Ширшова РАНSakhalin State University/SakhTECHСахалинский государственный университет-СахалинTECHV. I. Il’yichev Pacific Oceanological Institute, FEB RASТихоокеанский океанологический институт им. В. И. Ильичева ДВО РАНInstitute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, RASИнститут теории прогноза землетрясений и математической геофизики РАН150820244445928022025Copyright ©; 2024, Russian Academy of SciencesCopyright ©; 2024, Российская академия наук2024Russian Academy of SciencesРоссийская академия наукhttps://journals.eco-vector.com/0869-7698/article/view/676037

Diffiiculties in the anthropogenic concept of global warming are discussed and a seismogenic trigger mechanism for climate change is proposed.The essence of this mechanism is that methane contained in the micropores of frozen rocks in a locked state can be released as a result of the destruction of the microstructure of the environment due to additional stresses caused by the trigger effect of deformation waves passing through gas-saturated areas of sedimentary strata. The waves themselves are generated by the strongest earthquakes that occur in subduction zones. With a characteristic speed of deformation waves of the order of 100 km/year, they travel a distance of about 2000–2500 km from the Aleutian and Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zones to the Arctic zone in approximately 20–25 years. This corresponds to the time difference between a series of the most powerful earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 8.5, which occurred in these zones in the interval 1952–1965, and the beginning of a sharp climate warming in 1980. After the start of the gas filtration process as a result of the destruction of the pore microstructure and a sharp increasing the permeability of the geomedium due to the impact of a deformation wave, the process of methane emission can continue autonomously for tens and even hundreds of years, depending on the thickness of the disturbed gas-saturated layer. This explains the ongoing emission of methane on the Arctic shelf for the last forty-odd years after the strongest earthquakes of the middle of the last century that initiated it.

Обсуждаются трудности обоснования антропогенной концепции глобального потепления и предлагается сейсмогенно-триггерный механизм климатических изменений. Суть этого механизма состоит в том, что метан, содержащийся в микропорах мерзлых пород в запертом состоянии, может быть освобожден в результате разрушения микроструктуры среды из-за добавочных напряжений, вызванных триггерным эффектом деформационных волн, проходящих через газонасыщенные области осадочных толщ. Сами волны генерируются сильнейшими землетрясениями, происходящими в зонах субдукции. При характерной скорости деформационных волн порядка 100 км/год они проходят расстояние около 2000–2500 км от Алеутской и Курило-Камчатской зон субдукции до Арктической зоны примерно за 20–25 лет. Это соответствует разнице во времени между серией наиболее мощных землетрясений с магнитудой больше 8,5, произошедших в этих зонах в интервале 1952–1965 гг., и началам резкого потепления климата в 1980 г. После запуска процесса фильтрации газа в результате разрушения микроструктуры пор и резкого повышения проницаемости геосреды вследствие воздействия деформационной волны процесс эмиссии метана может продолжаться автономно в течение десятков и даже сотен лет в зависимости от толщины нарушенного газонасыщенного слоя. Этим объясняется продолжающаяся эмиссия метана на арктическом шельфе последние сорок с лишним лет после инициировавших ее сильнейших землетрясений середины прошлого века.

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