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<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.2" xml:lang="en"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Bulletin of the Russian Military Medical Academy</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="en">Bulletin of the Russian Military Medical Academy</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>Вестник Российской военно-медицинской академии</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn publication-format="print">1682-7392</issn><issn publication-format="electronic">2687-1424</issn><publisher><publisher-name xml:lang="en">Eco-Vector</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">676539</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17816/brmma676539</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="edn">YJFMTT</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>Original Study Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Оригинальное исследование</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="article-type"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title xml:lang="en">Predictors of Knee Osteoarthritis Progression Following Low-Dose Radiation Therapy: a 10-Year Randomized Controlled Trial</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>Предикторы прогрессирования остеоартрита коленного сустава после низкодозной лучевой терапии: 10-летнее рандомизированное контролируемое исследование</trans-title></trans-title-group><trans-title-group xml:lang="zh"><trans-title/></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9144-3901</contrib-id><contrib-id contrib-id-type="spin">6468-7705</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Makarova</surname><given-names>Maria V.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Макарова</surname><given-names>Мария Васильевна</given-names></name><name xml:lang="zh"><surname></surname><given-names></given-names></name></name-alternatives><address><country country="RU">Russian Federation</country></address><bio xml:lang="en"><p>MD, Cand. Sci. (Medicine)</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>канд. мед. наук, доцент</p></bio><email>mtim10@ya.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3230-9638</contrib-id><contrib-id contrib-id-type="spin">8608-8239</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Valkov</surname><given-names>Mikhail Yu.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Вальков</surname><given-names>Михаил Юрьевич</given-names></name><name xml:lang="zh"><surname></surname><given-names></given-names></name></name-alternatives><address><country country="RU">Russian Federation</country></address><bio xml:lang="en"><p>MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine)</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>д-р мед. наук</p></bio><email>m.valkov66@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8902-8947</contrib-id><contrib-id contrib-id-type="spin">9296-2930</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Kudryavtsev</surname><given-names>Alexander V.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кудрявцев</surname><given-names>Александр Валерьевич</given-names></name><name xml:lang="zh"><surname></surname><given-names></given-names></name></name-alternatives><address><country country="RU">Russian Federation</country></address><bio xml:lang="en"><p>MD, Cand. Sci. (Medicine)</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>канд. мед. наук</p></bio><email>alex.v.kudryavtsev@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5464-0498</contrib-id><contrib-id contrib-id-type="spin">5118-0081</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Grzhibovsky</surname><given-names>Andrey M.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Гржибовский</surname><given-names>Андрей Мечиславович</given-names></name><name xml:lang="zh"><surname></surname><given-names></given-names></name></name-alternatives><address><country country="RU">Russian Federation</country></address><bio xml:lang="en"><p>MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine)</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>д-р мед. наук</p></bio><email>a.grjibovski@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"/><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff1"><aff><institution xml:lang="en">Northern State Medical University</institution></aff><aff><institution xml:lang="ru">Северный государственный медицинский университет</institution></aff><aff><institution xml:lang="zh"></institution></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff2"><aff><institution xml:lang="en">Ammosov North-Eastern Federal University</institution></aff><aff><institution xml:lang="ru">Северо-Восточный федеральный университет имени М.К. Аммосова</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff3"><aff><institution xml:lang="en">Lomonosov Northern (Arctic) Federal University</institution></aff><aff><institution xml:lang="ru">Северный (Арктический) федеральный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2025-06-23" publication-format="electronic"><day>23</day><month>06</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>27</volume><issue>2</issue><issue-title xml:lang="en"/><issue-title xml:lang="ru"/><issue-title xml:lang="zh"/><fpage>239</fpage><lpage>248</lpage><history><date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2025-03-02"><day>02</day><month>03</month><year>2025</year></date><date date-type="accepted" iso-8601-date="2025-03-25"><day>25</day><month>03</month><year>2025</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement xml:lang="en">Copyright ©; 2025, Eco-Vector</copyright-statement><copyright-statement xml:lang="ru">Copyright ©; 2025, Эко-Вектор</copyright-statement><copyright-statement xml:lang="zh">Copyright ©; 2025,</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Eco-Vector</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Эко-Вектор</copyright-holder><ali:free_to_read xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/" start_date="2028-06-23"/><license><ali:license_ref xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/">https://eco-vector.com/for_authors.php#07</ali:license_ref></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://journals.eco-vector.com/1682-7392/article/view/676539">https://journals.eco-vector.com/1682-7392/article/view/676539</self-uri><abstract xml:lang="en"><p><bold>BACKGROUND:</bold> Osteoarthritis is the most prevalent joint disease, characterized by its progressive nature. Risk factors for radiographic progression remain poorly understood and inconsistently reported in the literature. The influence of low-dose radiation therapy on the baseline predictors of osteoarthritis progression has not been previously investigated.</p> <p><bold>AIM:</bold> This study aimed to identify predictors of knee osteoarthritis progression over a 10-year follow-up period following low-dose radiation therapy.</p> <p><bold>METHODS:</bold> Predictors of knee osteoarthritis progression over a 10-year follow-up period were identified based on baseline clinical, demographic, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) parameters in patients treated with symptom-modifying slow-acting drugs (glucosamine and chondroitin sulfate) in combination with low-dose radiation therapy (experimental group) and in those who received only symptom-modifying slow-acting drugs (control group). This randomized controlled trial initially enrolled 292 patients with clinically confirmed knee osteoarthritis (according to the Altman criteria) and radiographically verified Kellgren–Lawrence stage 0–2. At the time of analysis, 274 patients remained: 139 in the experimental group and 135 in the control group (18 were excluded for various reasons). Radiographic imaging of the knee joint was done in two projections prior to therapy, and a follow-up imaging was done ten years later. An analytical approach for magnetic resonance imaging evaluation was used to analyze baseline MRI data. Progression was classified into two types: any progression (an increase of ≥ 1 radiographic grade) and marked progression (an increase of ≥ 2 grades). Multivariate logistic regression was used in three stages to analyze the determinants of osteoarthritis progression.</p> <p><bold>RESULTS:</bold> After 10 years, osteoarthritis progression was noted in 209 patients (76.2%): 86 (31.3%) in the experimental group and 123 (44.9%) in the control group. Marked progression was observed in 3 patients (3%) in the experimental group and in 39 patients (36.1%) in the control group. Overall, the most significant predictors of marked knee osteoarthritis progression were age over 60 years, body mass index over 30 kg/m<sup>2</sup>, presence of pain (as assessed by the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index), subchondral plate thinning, treatment type, and initial radiographic stage.</p> <p><bold>CONCLUSION:</bold> The presence of synovitis increased the risk of osteoarthritis progression 2.6 times in patients with grade 0–2 disease. Low-dose radiation therapy exhibited a protective effect on disease progression.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="ru"><p><bold>Обоснование.</bold> Среди заболеваний суставов остеоартрит занимает лидирующую позицию, и у него есть тенденция к прогрессированию. Факторы риска рентгенологического прогрессирования остеоартрита мало изучены, литературные данные неоднозначны, оценку влияния низкодозной лучевой терапии на исходные предикторы прогрессирования остеоартрита не изучали.</p> <p><bold>Цель</bold> — определить предикторы прогрессирования остеоартрита коленного сустава при сроке наблюдения до 10 лет после низкодозной лучевой терапии.</p> <p><bold>Материалы и методы.</bold> По исходным данным клинико-демографических и магнитно-резонансных показателей определяли предикторы прогрессирования остеоартрита коленного сустава при 10-летнем сроке наблюдения за пациентами, получавшими симптоматические средства замедленного действия (глюкозамин и хондроитина сульфат) и низкодозную лучевую терапию (экспериментальная группа), и пациентами, получавшими только симптоматические средства замедленного действия (контрольная группа). Изначально в рандомизированное, контролируемое исследование было включено 292 пациента с клинически подтвержденным (по критериям Альтмана) остеоартритом коленных суставов с рентгенологической верификацией (стадии 0–II по Келлгрен–Лоуренсу). К моменту настоящего анализа осталось 274 пациента, из них в экспериментальной группе — 139, в контрольной — 135 (18 пациентов по различным причинам выбыли из исследования). Перед началом лечения проводили рентгенографию коленного сустава в двух проекциях и контроль через 10 лет. Оценку исходных данных магнитно-резонансной томографии проводили по критериям аналитического протокола оценки магнитно-резонансных изображений. Выделяли два вида прогрессирования: любое (увеличение на одну стадию и более) и выраженное (увеличение на две и более стадии). Изучение предикторов прогрессирования остеоартрита проводили в три этапа с применением многомерного логистического регрессионного анализа.</p> <p><bold>Результаты.</bold> Через 10 лет прогрессирование остеоартрита коленного сустава было зарегистрировано у 209 (76,2%) пациентов, из них у 86 (31,3%) пациентов экспериментальной группы и у 123 (44,9%) пациентов контрольной группы. Выраженное прогрессирование остеоартрита наблюдали у 3 (3%) пациентов экспериментальной группы и у 39 (36,1%) пациентов контрольной группы. В целом, наиболее значимыми показателями выраженного прогрессирования остеоартрита коленного сустава были возраст старше 60 лет, индекс массы тела более 30 кг/м<sup>2</sup>, наличие болевого синдрома (по шкале оценки остеоартрита университетов Западного Онтарио и Макмастера), истончение субхондральной пластины, вид лечения, исходная рентгенологическая стадия.</p> <p><bold>Заключение.</bold> Наличие синовита в 2,6 раз увеличивает риск прогрессирования остеоартрита при исходной 0–II стадии, а низкодозная лучевая терапия оказывает протективное влияние на течение заболевания.</p></trans-abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="zh"><p/></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>osteoarthritis</kwd><kwd>subchondral plate</kwd><kwd>low-dose radiation therapy</kwd><kwd>knee joint</kwd><kwd>symptom-modifying slow-acting drugs</kwd><kwd>glucosamine</kwd><kwd>chondroitin sulfate</kwd><kwd>predictors</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>остеоартрит</kwd><kwd>субхондральная пластина</kwd><kwd>низкодозная лучевая терапия</kwd><kwd>коленный сустав</kwd><kwd>симптоматические средства замедленного действия</kwd><kwd>глюкозамин</kwd><kwd>хондроитина сульфат</kwd><kwd>предикторы</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group/></article-meta></front><body></body><back><ref-list><ref id="B1"><label>1.</label><mixed-citation>Safiri S, Kolahi A-A, Smith E, et al. 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