Main trends and prospects for Uzbek exports to Russia

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Abstract

In this article, the authors analyzed the current trends of foreign exports of the Republic of Uzbekistan to the Russian Federation for 2016-2022. Particular attention is paid to the development of net exports of goods and services, which differs from traditional approaches to export analysis. The authors attempted to identify the main current trends in the development of exports in this geographical direction, taking into account the following factors: the dynamics of Russia's real GDP, the relative price of exports, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the special military operation. The authors present scenarios for the prospective development of Uzbek exports to Russia in 2023-2025. The research is based on an autoregressive model with a distributed lag and give appropriate recommendations for the further development of the export potential of the Republic of Uzbekistan in this geographical direction.

About the authors

Bakhtiyor Anvarovich Islamov

Tashkent Institute (branch) of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics

Email: bakhtiyor.is@ gmail.com

Munisa Mirzalievna Turdibaeva

Westminster International University in Tashkent (WIUT)

Email: mturdibaeva@gmail.com

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