No 6 (2019)

Long-term seismic forecast (lTSF) for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc VI 2019–V 2024; properties of precursory seismic activity in I 2017–V 2019. Development and practical application of the LTSF method

Fedotov S.A., Solomatin A.V.


The paper presents the results of the ongoing work on the method of the long-term seismic forecast (LTSF) for the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc. The method is based on seismic gaps and seismic cycle pattern’s. The work also reveals the most important trends of the method development over the prior decade. Based on the main methodology the long-term forecast is given for the next 5 years from VI 2019 to V 2024 period, for the most active part of the region’s seismogenic zone. The seismic cycle stages are predicted for the next five years, the normalized characteristic of the weak earthquakes (A10) amount, the earthquakes with the medium magnitudes expecting with the 0.8, 0.5 and 0.15 probabilities, the maximum expected magnitudes and the strongest with the M ≥ 7.7 earthquakes probabilities for 20 of its zones. The famous works of S.A. Fedotov resulted in further research of the regional seismic process’s spatial and temporal features within the 2017 period, including the strongest (M = 7.7) July 17, 2017 Near-Aleutian Earthquake. The results confirm close seismic process relation in the most seismically dangerous, according to the LTSF data zones and major events in the region itself and the adjacent seismic regions, as well as the current very high seismic hazard in some zones of the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc and the need to continue and increase the works being done for earthquake resistance and seismic safety in the most endangered zones and of course in administrative center of Kamchatka the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii city.

Вулканология и сейсмология. 2019;(6):6-22
pages 6-22 views

About metallogeny of the pacific volcanic belts

Sidorov А.А., Volkov A.V., Galyamov А.L.


The article discusses the actual aspects of the metallogeny of the Pacific volcanic belts (PVB), which are a complexes of volcanogenic-plutogenic formations associated with the development of the marginal lithosphere and has an expressive specificity of ore formation. It is shown that over time the notions of metallogenic homogeneity of PVB have received a new justification from the position of global plate tectonics. Metallogenic significance of Ag/Au relationships in ore deposits of the PVB is shown. The correlation between porphyry-epithermal and the VMS ore-forming systems, regenerated and rejuvenated epithermal deposits is discussed. Global metallogenic homogeneity of the Pacific ore belt suggests a wide development of analogues of American volcanogenic deposits in its Asian half, including in the North-East of Russia. The main part of the internal zone of the Okhotsko-Chukchi marginal volcanic belt – the Udo-Murgal island-arc belt, as well as the Uyandino-Yasachensky and Oloysky volcanic belts, are similar in geological structure not only to the Japanese green tuffs province, but also to other Pacific volcanic zones of the island-arc type and, therefore, within their limits, there is a high probability of revealing the entire variety of deposits of the VMS ore-formation series.

Вулканология и сейсмология. 2019;(6):23-35
pages 23-35 views

Mineral-phase paragenes in explosive products of modern emergencies of Kamchatka and Kuril volcanoes. Part 2. Minerals-satellites of tolbach type diamond

Silaev V.I., Karpov G.A., Anikin L.P., Vergasova L.P., Filippov V.N., Tarasov K.V.


In the composition of the explosive-atmoelectrogenic paragenes studied by us, more than 100 mineral species, varieties and non-crystalline phases are found - carbon minerals, phases and compounds, native metals and alloys, carbides, silicides, nitrides, halides, chalcogenides, oxides, silicates and aluminosilicates, oxygen salts. The studied paragenes is characterized by an abnormally low level of mineralogical organization, which indicates the deep origin of the substance in the explosive facies of volcanic eruptions, including carbon minerals, phases and organic compounds.

Вулканология и сейсмология. 2019;(6):36-49
pages 36-49 views

Geothermal resources of Kamchatka and the nearest prospects of their development

Kiryukhin A.V., Sugrobov V.M.


The forecast geothermal resources of Kamchatka are sufficient to generate 3900 MW of electrical energy. The same resources for heat supply are estimated at a capacity of 1350 MWt (thermal). Thermohydrodynamic TOUGH2 modeling of exploitation of already identified productive hydrogeothermal reservoirs with installed energy properties allows us to predict: 1) the possibility of increasing the electrical performance of already operating areas of the Mutnovsky field up to 105 MW and the Pauzhetsky field up to 11 MW using binary technologies; 2) the possibility of increasing heat generation at the Paratunskoye field with submersible pumps up to 216 MWt, which will fully ensure the heat consumption of the district heating systems of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.

Вулканология и сейсмология. 2019;(6):50-65
pages 50-65 views

The structure and evolution of the east Greenland continental margin before spreading started on the Kolbeinsey ridge

Usenko S.V., Prokhorova T.V.


An analysis of the deep structure of the East Greenland margin (Blosseville Kyst to Liverpool Land) and of the Jan Mayen microcontinent resulted in the development of a crustal model that was valid for both before their disruption. A joint model clearly demonstrates the net result of rifting phases during Paleozoic, Mesozoic, and Cenozoic time. Starting from the Devonian, a graben-shaped depression about 180 km wide existed between Liverpool Land and the Jan Mayen Ridge; the depression was formed by subsiding of the crystalline basement that was not compensated by sedimentation. The marine basin was approximately 2 km deep during late Devonian time. The west-east joint deep crustal section clearly defines three depths in the upper mantle that fit dome-like surfaces superposed on each other. We interpret these surfaces as temperature fronts of mantle plumes that differ by their time of origin: Paleozoic, Mesozoic to Cenozoic, and late Cenozoic. The rim of the present-day Blosseville Kyst and Liverpool Land shelf is found to be underlain by a basement high that is associated with the axis of a positive free-air gravity anomaly. East of the high along the anomaly axis, we identified a continent-ocean boundary. The present-day phase in the geological evolution of the Greenland-Norwegian region north of Iceland is characterized by an increased thermal state of the lithosphere and manifestations of intraplate tectonics.

Вулканология и сейсмология. 2019;(6):66-78
pages 66-78 views

A project of creating atlas aftershocks of strong earthquakes

Guglielmi A.V., Zavyalov A.D., Zotov O.D.


The Omori Law, which describes the repeated underground shocks after a strong earthquake, is written in the form of a nonlinear differential equation. An idea of the focal deactivation coefficient after the main shock is introduced. Two advantages of the new wording of the Omori Law are given. Firstly, there is an interesting possibility to naturally take into account exogenous and endogenous triggers affecting the earthquake source. Endogenous triggers in the form of round-the-world seismic echo and free oscillations of the Earth, excited by the main shock, are especially noted. The second advantage is that the differential aftershock equation makes it possible to put the reverse problem of the earthquake source physics. The essence of the inverse problem is to determine the deactivation coefficient from the data on the observed aftershock frequency. Examples of inverse problem solution are given. The project of creation of the Atlas of aftershocks on the basis of the solution of the inverse problem of the source, “cooling down” after a strong earthquake is offered.

Вулканология и сейсмология. 2019;(6):79-84
pages 79-84 views

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