Determination of seismic regime parameters for seismic hazard assessment within the territory of the Irkutsk oblast

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Resumo

The article considers the problem of determining the parameters of the seismic regime for the territory of the Irkutsk region. To solve this problem, a complete catalog of earthquakes within the studied region with a unified magnitude scale was created for the time period from 1962 to 2021. Determination of seismic regime parameters is an important step for subsequent seismic hazard assessments. The solution of this problem is extremely important for insurance and reinsurance companies, as it makes it possible to use the probabilistic approach in the tasks of earthquake risk assessment, which in turn allows to make the most correct management decisions and ensure the stability of the company’s financial system.

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Sobre autores

P. Shebalin

Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences

Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: p.n.shebalin@gmail.com
Rússia, Profsoyuznaya str., 84/32, Moscow, 117997

I. Vorobieva

Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: p.n.shebalin@gmail.com
Rússia, Profsoyuznaya str., 84/32, Moscow, 117997

S. Baranov

FRC UGS RAS; Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: p.n.shebalin@gmail.com

Kola Branch (KB) FRC UGS RAS

Rússia, Fersmana str., 14, Apatity, Murmansk region, 184209; Profsoyuznaya str., 84/32, Moscow, 117997

A. Kovalenko

Russian National Reinsurance Company

Email: anton.kovalenko@rnrc.ru
Rússia, Gasheka str., 6, Moscow, 125047

A. Livinskiy

Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences; Russian National Reinsurance Company

Email: p.n.shebalin@gmail.com
Rússia, Profsoyuznaya str., 84/32, Moscow, 117997; Gasheka str., 6, Moscow, 125047

A. Lykova

Russian National Reinsurance Company

Email: anton.kovalenko@rnrc.ru
Rússia, Gasheka str., 6, Moscow, 125047

Bibliografia

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2. Fig. 1. Boundary of the study area (Irkutsk region and adjacent territories).

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3. Fig. 2. Recurrence graph of a calibrated earthquake catalog, N is the number of earthquakes with a magnitude (M) above a given level. 1 – distribution approximation and parameter b estimate obtained using the Aki method [Aki, 1965].

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4. Fig. 3. Estimation of the correlation dimension df [Grassberger, Procaccia, 1983] based on the calibrated catalog data, M ≥ Mc = 3.5. 1 – distribution approximation and estimation of the parameter df.

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5. Fig. 4. Distribution of minimum values ​​of the proximity function for the events of the catalog. 1 – position of the half-height of the right branch of the distribution of minimum values ​​of the proximity function (0.7); 2 – preliminary value η0 = 10(–0.94); 3 – position of the right mode (–0.12).

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6. Fig. 5. Estimation of the parameter η0 based on the calibrated catalog data, M ≥ Mc = 3.5. a — weighted distribution densities: 1 — kprandom(η) distribution, 2 — (1–k)pclustered(η) distribution, 3 — preal(η) distribution; b — distribution functions: 4 — Frandom(η) function, 5 — 1-Fclustered(η) function, 6 — Freal(η) function, 7 — Fclustered(η) function.

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7. Fig. 6. Seismic activity variations a = log10 ν, where ν is the estimated number of earthquakes with magnitude M ≥3.5 calculated using formula (5). a – seismic activity variation estimate map, activity values ​​are tied to scanning circle centers; b – earthquake epicenter map in a scanning circle with center coordinates (108.6°E, 55.5°N), earthquake sample center (109.4°E, 55.2°N) is offset from the circle center; c – example of automated scanning circle center transfer to the average position of sample earthquakes; d – seismic activity variation estimate map with values ​​tied to the average position of sample earthquakes. 1 – earthquake epicenters from background event catalog; 2 – seismic activity variation scale a.

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8. Fig. 7. Variations in the slope of the b-frequency graph with reference to the average position of the sample earthquakes. 1 – epicenters of earthquakes from the background events catalog; 2 – scale of variations in the slope of the b-frequency graph.

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9. Fig. 8. Comparison of recurrence graphs. 1 – recurrence graph of registered seismicity; 2 – recurrence graph reconstructed from the map of spatial variations of seismic activity ν(3.5) and the map of the slope of the recurrence graph b.

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