DYNAMICS OF REGIONAL MORTALITY RATES IN RUSSIA IN 2016-2019 COMPARED TO THOSE IN 2020: THE «CONTRIBUTION» OF COVID-19

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Abstract

Objective. To study the dynamics of regional mortality rates from all causes and from 3 groups of causes (diseases, external causes, alcohol and drugs) in 20162019, to compare the average 4-year mortality rates with 2020 and to assess the «contribution» of COVID-19 to mortality rates from diseases. Material and Methods. Data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on the average annual population and the number of deaths in one-year age groups for 2016-2020 were analyzed. Standardized mortality rates (SMR) from all causes, 3 causes (diseases, external causes, alcohol and drugs), average regional values of SMR and standard deviation were determined. Results. The regional mean SMR from all causes decreased from 2016 to 2019, but only 50% of regions recorded an annual decline in SMR; the remaining regions had a ripple effect. In 2020, compared to the average SMR value for 2016-2019, there was an increase in SMR (p<0.0001) by an average of 12.9±5.3% (from diseases - by 15.4±5.9%); only Sevastopol recorded a decrease (-0.2%) in SMR; the maximum increase in SMR was recorded in the Chechen Republic (+35%). Mid-regional SMR from external causes in 2020 (compared with 2016-2019) decreased by 9.4±9% (p<0.0001) but increased in 7 regions; the mean regional SMR from alcohol- and drug-related causes did not change significantly, increasing in 45 regions; the proportion of deaths from these 2 cause groups in 2020 was 10.5±3.2%. The proportion of deaths from COVID-19 to deaths from diseases averaged 6.6±3.5% (>13% in 3 regions; <2% in 8 regions; 2.2-11.0% in 71 regions). We found a weak correlation between the increase in SMR from all causes (including diseases) and SMR from COVID-19. Conclusion. There was pronounced interregional variability in SMR from all causes and individual groups of causes between 2016 and 2019; this trend worsened in 2020. COVID-19 only partially explains the changes and variability of regional mortality rates.

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About the authors

I. V Samorodskaya

National Medical Research Center for Therapy and Preventive Medicine, Ministry of Health of Russia

Author for correspondence.
Email: samor2000@yandex.ru
Professor, MD Moscow

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2. Fig. 1. Year-to-year (2016–2019) change in standardized mortality rates (per 100,000 population) for all causes in 82 regions of Russia

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3. Fig. 2. Changes for all causes in standardized mortality rates in 2020 compared with the average value for 2016–2019; %

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