A prognostic value of level of antiviral antibodies in the development of recurrence of bladder cancer


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Abstract

Introduction: Serological diagnosis of virus-associated tumors attracts the attention of many specialists. The changes in the level of antiviral antibodies in tumors of different localizations are proved. In some cases, the authors suggest using these data either for screening of tumors or for controlling the cure. Aim: to evaluate the predictive value of antiviral antibodies for the recurrence of bladder cancer. Materials and methods: a level of antiviral antibodies (IgG, M) against Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), herpes simplex virus (HSV) 1 and 2 types, cytomegalovirus (CMV) of 100 patients with bladder cancer (72 men and 28 women) aged from 38 to 90 years (mean age 65±10) was studied. Multivariate analysis with a construction of classification tree was performed. The recurrence of the bladder cancer was used as the dependent variable. Results: in patients with recurrence of bladder cancer there was an increase in the level of anti-CMV IgG (616.5±501.46 U/ml vs. 339.06±306.61 U/ml, p=0.0017) and anti-EBV IgG-EBNA (246,7±207 U/ml vs. 141,5±163,7 U/ml, p=0.0118). After the construction of the classification tree, anti-CMV IgG, anti-EBV IgG-EBNA, tumor stage and the presence of CMV DNA in tumor tissue were selected. It allowed to classify correctly 20 of 24 patients with recurrence and 58 of 72 patients without relapse. The most significant predictors included anti-CMV IgG level (100%), anti-ЕBNA IgG level (78%) and tumor stage (50%). The sensitivity, specificity, positive prognostic value (probability of tumor detection in patients with a positive test result), negative prognostic value (probability of absence of the tumor in persons with a negative test result) and accuracy were 83.33%, 80.56%, 58.82%, 93.55% and 81.25%, respectively. A multivariate analysis (binary logistic regression) was performed and a reliable model (χ2=22,438, p=0,00043) was created, including the following parameters: anti-CMV IgG more than 670 u/ ml, anti-EBNA IgG more than 130 u/ml, the degree of anaplasia, the presence CMV and/or EBV DNA in tumor tissue. Based on the regression equation, an accuracy test for prediction of tumor recurrence was carried out, which resulted in fairly high predictive results: specificity and sensitivity were 95.2% and 33.3%, respectively. Conclusions: anti-CMV IgG level more than 670 U/ml and anti-EBNA IgG level more than 130 U/ml are reliable predictors for the recurrence of bladder cancer.

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About the authors

I. V Kosova

RMANPO; GBUZ “City Clinical Hospital named after V.P. Demihov DZM

Email: kosovainga@mail.ru
Ph.D., urologist at the Department of Urology

O. B Loran

RMANPO

Email: oleg_loran@gmail.com
Academician of the RAS, Dr.Med.Sci., professor, Head of Department of Urology and Surgical Andrology

L. A Sinyakova

RMANPO

Email: l.a.sinyakova@mail.ru
Dr.Med.Sci., professor at the Department of Urology and Surgical Andrology

L. V Gundorova

GBUZ “City Clinical Hospital named after V.P. Demihov DZM

Email: ludovik-213@mail.ru
Dr.Med.Sci., Head of Department of Pathologic Anatomy

V. A Kosov

Komi Republican Oncological Center

Email: zinaidakosova@yandex.ru
urologist and oncologist, senior doctor

I. E Pogodina

Vologda Regional Clinical Hospital

Email: utk-irina@yandex.ru
Cand.Med.Sci., pathologist, Department of Pathologic Anatomy

D. N Kolbasov

GBUZ “City Clinical Hospital named after V.P. Demihov DZM

Email: urology68@rambler.ru
Ph.D., urologist, Head of Department of Urology

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