System analysis of reliability of district heat supply in Samara

The paper analyzes the technical conditions of heat supply systems in Samara city. A model for estimating the status of probability of no-failure during the heating season was proposed. The analysis of the technical conditions of the Samara city’s heating networks from 2006 to 2016 was carried on. Analysis revealed that by the beginning of 2017 the length of the heating networks in service and identified for replacement was indicating as 36,7% from entire length of the heating networks.  A mathematical model as exponentiation not uniform function for the assessment of the probability of the trouble-free operation of the heat supply system was developed. The model constructed attributes the length of the networks identified for replacement and the length of the networks maintained in good working order to the probability of the trouble-free operation. The parameters of the constructed mathematical model were identified. The correlation of calculated values with probability calculated from statistical data was evaluated.  Quality assessment criteria for the constructed model attest to a good convergence of model results with calculations based on statistical data.