Building a system of indicators on entrepreneurship in the Russian Federation and their forecasting based on the intelligent hybrid system Horizon

Forecasting the development of small and medium-sized businesses is an important task for large market economy entities. The purpose of the study was to develop a short-term forecast of entrepreneurship indicators in the Russian Federation based on a comprehensive forecast model implemented in the intelligent hybrid system Horizon. The large country econometric model of the Russian Federation is based on the authors' methodology for constructing a distributed system for calculating short-term and medium-term forecasts of socio-economic development indicators, including blocks of indicators of macroeconomics, financial, innovation and social activity.This article describes the structure of a new block of the model – a block of entrepreneurship indicators. The results of predictive calculations using an econometric model, neural network models and a random forest are presented. The application of a set of models made it possible to obtain high-quality forecasts for all entrepreneurship indicators.

entrepreneurship, socio-economic indicators' forecast, hybrid models, intelligent methods