MODEL OF EPIDEMIC MANIFESTATIONS OF STREPTOCOCCAL INFECTION

Objective. To build a fundamental mechanism of epidemic manifestations of infectious process, linking phase changes in pathogen and host populations. Materials and Methods. Observational data on the development of epidemic manifestations of streptococcal infection in a closed group, and system-dynamic approach to the explanation of the phase shift with the test of assumptions about the mutual initiation of phase transformations of the pathogen and the host populations were used. Results. Qualitative similarity between the model behavior and observational data was shown, confirming the validity of the assumption about mutual initiation of two phase transformations. A difference in the intensity of manifestation of their influence on each other was detected. Conclusion. Numerical analysis of the model behavior has shown its value, which allows to consider the mechanism of epidemic manifestations of infection process as a conjunction of two chains of phase transformations, triggering each other.

incidence, virulence, phase transformations, regulation