Development of a procedure for ranking the administrative territories in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation according to the degree of risk for complicating the epizootiological and epidemiological situation of anthrax on the basis of multivariate analysis

Objective. To develop a procedure for determining the minimum set of available criteria for ranking the administrative territories in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation according to the degree of risk for complicating the epizootiological and epidemiological situation of anthrax on the basis of multivariate analysis (in case of the constituent entities of the North Caucasian and Southern Federal Districts). Materials and methods. The investigators used information from the Directorates for the Republic of Dagestan, the Stavropol Territory, and the Rostov Region, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being. Assessing the risks for anthrax provided the ranking factors characterizing the epizootiological and epidemiological activity of the actualized settlements permanently unfavorable for anthrax (PUSs) in the administrative territorial units (ATUs) of the constituent entities: amounts (R1 ) and number of years of activity (R 2 ) of PUSs, proportion of active PUSs (R 3 ) and number of years of activity years (R4 ) over the last 10 years, multiplicity of PUS activity (R 5 ), density (R6 ) and specific gravity (R7 ) of PUSs, and epizootic index (R8 ). The investigators explored the following procedures: ∑R 1-8 , ∑R 1-7 , ∑R 1-6 , ∑R 1-5 , ∑R 1-5.7, and ∑R 1-5.8 . Results. Significant differences (p ≤ 0.05) in the division of ATUs in the constituent entities into 4 risk groups were found in most cases of comparison: between ∑R 1-8 and ∑R 1-6 , ∑R 1-5 (the Republic of Dagestan), ∑R 1-6 , ∑R 1-5 , ∑R 1-5.7 , ∑R 1-5.8 (the Stavropol Territory), ∑R 1-7, ∑R 1-6 , ∑R 1-5 (the Rostov Region). At the same time, the ∑R 1-8 procedure more accurately and objectively reflected the situation and risks of anthrax, whereas the exclusion of factors caused a distortion of the results. Conclusion. To rank the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, a ∑R 1-8 -based approach is proposed to make evidence-based planning of preventive measures to improve infection surveillance in the country.

anthrax, settlement permanently unfavorable for anthrax, epizootiological and epidemiological situation, geographic information systems, risk factors, ranking of territories