Some epidemic indicators of increase in COVID-19 incidence in Russia in 2020–2023

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Abstract

Objective. The analysis of some epidemic index of rises of COVID-19 morbidity in Russia in March 2020 – November 2023.

Materials and methods. Date from Internet resources Stopcoronavirus.rf, Yandex DataLens [Yandex DataLensс, Gogov.ru portal], and data of research, published in foreign and domestic scientist publication is used for conducting analyses.

Results. The cause of existing of rises of COVID-19 morbidity in Russia are or season’s factor (second, forth, seventh, and ninth rises) or spreading of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 virus. The genovariants of SARS-CoV-2 virus may essentially difference on epidemic characteristics of caused disease. The genovariant «Delta» is the most pathogenicity from all known variants of SARS-CoV-2 virus. the genovariant «Omicron» is the most transmissive. The maximum number of COVID-19 cases per day (203949 certificated cases) was registered during fifth rise of morbidity (dominant agent-BA.2 line of «Omicron» genovariant). The most highly index of lethality were registered during third (3,45%) and fourth (3,51%) rises of morbidity (dominant agent – the «Delta» genovariant).

Conclusion. The nine rises of morbidity were registered from the beginning of COVID-19 epidemic in Russia (March 2020). The epidemic characteristics of next rise of morbidity depend mainly on from dominant agent of SARS-CoV-2 virus and herd immunity. The main direction of natural evolution of SARS-CoV-2 virus during COVID-19 pandemic is the existing of virus genovariants with high transmissivity level, but lower pathogenicity. From beginning of 2022 the most wide spread variant of SARS-CoV-2 virus was omicron genovariant (B1.1.529) and their sublines BA.2, BA.2.75, («Centaur»), BA.5 («Czerber»), XBB.1.5 («Kraken»), XBB 1.16 («Arktur»), BA.2.86, («Pirola»). The reduction for every new rise of morbidity (began with sixth) the index of mean day number of cases in common with countermand of mass vaccination define continuous reduction of herd immunity against COVID-19 аnd this disease will be endemic in Russia.

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About the authors

Tatyana E. Sizikova

48 Central Scientific Research, Ministry of Defens of the Russia Federation

Author for correspondence.
Email: 48cnii@mil.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1817-0126

Cand. Biol. Sci., Leading Researcher

Russian Federation, Sergiev Posad

Natalya V. Karulina

48 Central Scientific Research, Ministry of Defens of the Russia Federation

Email: 48cnii@mil.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7781-5249

Cand. Biol. Sci., Leading Researcher

Russian Federation, Sergiev Posad

Natalya A. Saifulina

48 Central Scientific Research, Ministry of Defens of the Russia Federation

Email: 48cnii@mil.ru
ORCID iD: 0009-0003-9531-9216

Junior Researcher

Russian Federation, Sergiev Posad

Vitaliy N. Lebedev

48 Central Scientific Research, Ministry of Defens of the Russia Federation

Email: 48cnii@mil.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6552-4599

Professor, BD, Junior Researcher

Russian Federation, Sergiev Posad

Sergey V. Borisevich

48 Central Scientific Research, Ministry of Defens of the Russia Federation

Email: 48cnii@mil.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6742-3919

Professor, Academician of Russian Academy of Sciences, BD, Head of Institute

Russian Federation, Sergiev Posad

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