The “Zeitenwende” in German defence policy: major steps, limits and risks

The “Zeitenwende” (times-turn) declared by chancellor Olaf Scholz in February 2022 presents a major shift in the German defence policy in recent decades. Berlin is now pursuing an ambitious aim of becoming a military leader in Europe after years of neglecting and defunding its army. The change in Germany’s military doctrine based on its newly published National Security Strategy and Defence Policy Guidelines are analyzed along with the current restructuring of the Bundeswehr and the procurement activities under the 100 bln euro special fund. The research shows that, although large, the provided investment is unlikely to eliminate deep-rooted deficits of the German army, especially when it comes to lacking equipment, infrastructure, munitions and personnel. While Germany’s new core concept of “integrated security” implies militarization of its foreign and security policies, the continuity of the “Zeitenwende” is far from being guaranteed in the years to come. The author underscores that mounting economic problems, institutional limits and Germany’s special strategic culture of restraint can massively hinder the military build-up. Another point is that a strong anti-Russian stance embedded in its new defence posture makes Berlin less flexible in terms of strategic autonomy. Reviving its Cold War role model of a “frontline state” Germany makes it even more difficult to find some common ground on a future security architecture in Europe. Some of its steps like equipping its nuclear-capable air component with F-35As, deploying and developing midrange missiles or consolidating a multinational ground-based air defence (European Sky Shield Initiative) could further destabilize European security.