Рrobabilistic-statistical assessment of karst and suffosion hazard and risk of destruction by sinkholes of the main facilities at the Nizhny Novgorod NPP

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Abstract

In the mathematical description of sinkhole distribution with time, sinkholes are considered as random discrete events. The diameter of funnels is the main indicator of sinkhole impact power on the environment, and the intensity of sinkhole occurrence is the main probabilistic index. Most generally, the risk of losses from karst-suffosion sinkholes is the product of subsidence probability by the damage caused by a recipient object deformation or destruction. Formulas of direct damage and vulnerability have been derived, allowing for a unified assessment of physical and economic losses from damage to engineering and territorial facilities caused by geological processes. Two currently used stochastic models of sinkhole formation in covered karst areas are considered, i.e. exponential and linear models. It is shown that with the intensity of the process and the area of risk recipients less than 0.1 year–1⋅km–2 and 10 ha, respectively, these models give close values of the probability of damage to recipient objects. The linear model, written as a system of two equations, is devoid of some of its disadvantages and allows one to predict the risk of losses in case of non-compliance with Poisson’s law. In the article, the assessment of the risk of radioactive emissions and out-of-design accidents at the site of the projected NNPP power units is based on data obtained during surveys on 14 sinkholes formed over 53 years in an area of 50 km2, in the center of which the industrial site is located. The Poisson flow of events is found to take no place in this area, and a linear risk model has been chosen for the forecast, written as the product of the frequency of sinkholes occurrence under the four main structures of the NNPP by their vulnerability. Taking into account some assumptions and design features of engineering facilities, it is shown that the risk of their beyond-design accidents and the risk of radiation emissions at the industrial site are many times less than their permissible values specified by regulatory documents on the use of atomic energy in Russian Federation.

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About the authors

A. V. Anikeev

Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Author for correspondence.
Email: anikeev_alex@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Bldg. 2, 13, Ulansky Lane, Moscow, 101000

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2. Fig. 1. Location of the NNNPP main facilities site.

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3. Fig. 2. Linear (blue) and exponential (red) plots of the dependence of the probability P of area damage on time t at the frequency of failure λ* = 0.05 year-1 (a), and the probability of Po object damage on its area Ѕo for the time То = 50 years for two values of the process intensity λ: solid lines - λ = 0.1 year-1 ⋅ km-2, dashed lines - λ = 0.05 year-1 ⋅ km-2 (b) [1].

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4. Fig. 3. Surface manifestations of karst at the NIAES site and adjacent territory: 1 - clusters of sinkholes; 2 - single sinkholes; 3 - site of main structures; 4 - boundary of special survey of surface karst forms in scale 1 : 10 000 on the territory with area S = 50 km2 (according to the materials of NIAEP JSC).

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5. Fig. 4. Ratio of intensity λ and frequency λ* of failures at the evaluated area (object) So and the whole territory S bounded by isolines λ* = const (a) and λ = const (b).

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6. Fig. 5. Layout of power units of Nizhny Novgorod NPP: 1 - reactor building, 2 - auxiliary reactor building, 3 - turbine building, 4 - tower evaporative cooling tower (according to the materials of NIAES JSC).

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