Multiyear variability of aufies area in the Selenga River basin and its determining hydrometeorological factors

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Aufeis are widespread in the permafrost zone, including the Selenga River basin. They are considered as indicators of dynamic groundwater reserves and often cause damage to settlements and infrastructure. In this study, a representative set of aufeis in the Selenga River basin was compiled based on a previously developed GIS dataset. Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite images for 1990–2024, acquired immediately after snowmelt, were used to estimate the aufeis area and its multi-year changes. Changes in aufeis area were compared with meteorological parameters derived from the weather station data and ERA5 reanalysis. We found that the average aufeis area decreases by 3.5% per 10 years. At the same time, interannual variations of the area of individual aufeis are generally poorly correlated. The aufeis area has a negative correlation with air temperature in December, March and April, as cold weather in these months favours increase of ice-covered area. A significant increase in air temperature in April in recent decades may be one of the reasons for the overall decrease in the aufeis area. A correlation has also been found with the amount of precipitation in the previous year and particularly in the period from June to September. The largest aufeis area has been observed in 1995–1996, after 1993–1994 which was the wettest year of the period. The lowest aufeis area corresponds to the driest years 2014–2016. On average, the meteorological variables explain 52% of the interannual variability of the aufeis area, but for individual aufeis this value ranges from 7 to 63%. Such differences are due to the different origin of the considered aufeis and possible changes in the hydrogeological conditions, the identification of which requires field studies.

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作者简介

E. Garmaev

Baikal Institute of Nature Management of the Siberian Branch of RAS

Email: and3131@inbox.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Ulan-Ude

V. Chernykh

Baikal Institute of Nature Management of the Siberian Branch of RAS

Email: and3131@inbox.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Ulan-Ude

S. Pyankov

Perm State University

Email: and3131@inbox.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Perm

A. Shikhov

Perm State University; Kazan Federal University

编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: and3131@inbox.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Perm; Kazan

A. Ayurzhanaev

Baikal Institute of Nature Management of the Siberian Branch of RAS

Email: and3131@inbox.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Ulan-Ude

D. Bogatyrev

Perm State University

Email: and3131@inbox.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Perm

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2. Fig. 1. Spatial distribution of aufeis with different area sizes in the Selenga River basin according to (Chernykh et al., 2024). Numbers on the map correspond to the numbers of aufies groups in Table 1

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3. Fig. 2. Location of the aufeis or groups of them, and distribution of the permafrost in the Selenga River basin. The numbers 1–12 on the map correspond to the ID numbers of aufeis groups in Table 1. In the map legend, aufeis or their groups, classified by maximum area observed in 1990–2024, km2, are shown as circles of different diameters; 1–4 – distribution of the permafrost in the Selenga River basin according to (Obu et al., 2019): 1 – continuous permafrost (>90% coverage), 2 – intermittent permafrost (50–90% coverage), 3 – sporadic permafrost (10–50% coverage), 4 – island permafrost (< 10% coverage); 5 – weather stations. On the map next to the weather stations are their numbers

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4. Fig. 3. Groups of aufeis No 11 (a) and 12 (б), delineated from Sentinel-2 images for April 2024. 1 – mask area, 2 – aufeis areas

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5. Fig. 4. Inter-annual variability of the average aufeis areas (1), average date of image acquisition (2) and annual precipitation according to the ERA5 reanalysis data in the Selenga river basin (3)

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6. Fig. 5. Relationships of the aufeis area with the average annual (а, в) and average December (б, г) water discharge according to gauging stations for the previous year: а–б – average area of all considered aufeis and water discharge at the gauging station Zuunburen (Selenge river); в–г – area of ice No 1 and water discharge at the gauging station Khantai (Egiin-Gol river)

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