The impact of population size and geographical factors on the incidence of acute respiratory infections in the first half of 2020 in the regions of the Russian Federation during the COVID-19 pandemic


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Abstract

Objective. To analyze the incidence of acute respiratory infections (ARI) in the f irst half of 2020 versus the same period of2016-2019 in the regions of the Russian Federation according to the population size, geographical location, and average annual air temperature. Materials and methods. The investigators retrospectively analyzed the incidence of COVID-19, acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI), influenza, and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in Russia. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Spearman’s regression and correlation analysis were used to determine the possible association of morbidity with climatogeographic and social characteristics. Results. The incidence of ARI (including COVID-19) in the first half of2020 exceeded the average incidence of ARI in the same period of 2016-2019 in 32 regions of the Russian Federation. The maximum excess was observed in the regions located in the immediate vicinity of the People’s Republic of China, the countries of the Middle East and the European Union. These were the Republics of Buryatia (33.78%), Tyva (51.34%), Ingushetia (79.76%), Altai (693.77%), Dagestan (1445.00%), the Trans-Baikal Territory (44.01%), and the Kaliningrad Region (651.98%). The incidence increase was less pronounced (0.01-22.28%) in 25 regions of the Russian Federation, whereas its decrease by 0.55-37.29% was noted in 53 regions. There was a statistically significant relationship between the incidence of ARI and the population size. Conclusion. In the first half of 2020, the maximum increase in incidence of ARI versus that in other regions was recorded in the border regions. There was a weak significant relationship between the population size and the increased incidence of ARI. There was no association between the incidence increase and the average annual air temperature.

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About the authors

Natalia Yu. Pshenichnaya

Central Research Institute of Epidemiology

Email: natalia-pshenichnaya@yandex.ru
MD, Deputy Director of Clinical and Analytical Work

Grigory Yu. Zhuravlev

Central Research Institute of Epidemiology

Email: grigory.y.zhuravlev@gmail.com
Second-Year Resident in Infectious Diseases

Irina A. Lizinfeld

Central Research Institute of Epidemiology

Email: irinalizinfeld@gmail.com
Advisor

Vasily G. Akimkin

Central Research Institute of Epidemiology

Email: crie@pcr.ru
MD, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director

Nadezhda S. Morozova

Federal Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human WellBeing

Email: morozovans@fcgie.ru
Head, Epidemiological Surveillance Department

Viktor V. Maleyev

Central Research Institute of Epidemiology

MD, Academician of the of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Expert Advisor for Director

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