Risk factors for unfavorable course of COVID-19 in a prediction model in residents of long-term care facilities

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Abstract

Objective. Assessing the chances of developing pneumonia and the chances of death in residents of long-term care facilities with COVID-19 and building a predictive model of the probability of developing pneumonia and death.

Materials and methods. An analysis of 355 medical records of residents of closed long-term care facilities (CLTCF) in Moscow who became ill with COVID-19 between 2020 and 2022 was carried out. A predictive model of the probability of a certain outcome was constructed using the binary logistic regression method.

Results. In the studied group, age from 51 to 96 years compared to persons 18–50 years old increased the chances of developing pneumonia by 5.198 times and the chance of death by 4.895 times; the presence of 4 to 16 concomitant diseases (compared to 1–3 diseases) – by 5.198 and 18,293 times, respectively; dysfunction of the pelvic organs – by 4.941 and 5.091 times, respectively. Second-degree disability reduced the chances of developing pneumonia compared to first-degree disability – by 1.689 times, the ability to walk independently – by 4.048 times, male gender – by 4.975 times. The ability to walk independently reduced the chances of death by 2.066 times, male gender – by 1.901 times.

Conclusion. Based on the obtained prognostic models containing information about age, gender, disability degree, the number of concomitant diseases and the presence or absence of arterial hypertension, it is possible to predict the probability of developing pneumonia, and based on information about age, the number of concomitant diseases, the presence or absence of arterial hypertension and kidney disease – the probability of death in a resident of a closed long-term care facility.

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About the authors

Natalia G. Davidova

Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being; Branch of the «Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology in Moscow» in the Eastern Administrative District of Moscow

Author for correspondence.
Email: dawidowa.nat2016@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4429-9844

Postgraduate Student, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being; Epidemiologist, Branch of the «Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology in the City of Moscow» in the Eastern Administrative District of Moscow

Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow

Svetlana V. Ugleva

Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being

Email: uglevas@bk.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1322-0155

MD, Associate Professor, Professor, Department of Epidemiology with Courses in Molecular Diagnostics and Disinfection

Russian Federation, Moscow

Vasily G. Akimkin

Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being

Email: vgakimkin@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4228-9044

Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, МD, Professor, Director

Russian Federation, Moscow

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. Frequency of concomitant diseases in patients with COVID-19 living in CLTCF

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3. Fig. 2. ROC curve characterizing the dependence of the probability of developing pneumonia on the value of the logistic function P

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4. Fig. 3. ROC curve characterizing the dependence of the probability of death on the value of the logistic function P

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