Abstract
The sustainable development of the dairy subcomplex is a core element of the country's food security. The article formulates the factors of sustainable development of the industry, taking into account Western sanctions and changes in the export-import potential of the region. Based on the application of econometric modeling, a model of sustainable development of dairy cattle breeding in the region was built under the influence of a system of dominant factors. The factors of sustainable development of the dairy industry in the Smolensk region have been analyzed. The authors took into account the effectiveness of breeding and genetic potential, the application of import substitution policy and the activation of state support for the industry. The key role of domestic livestock breeds in solving problems of food security and normalization of herd reproduction processes is determined.