Towards creation of innovative technology for optimization of fruit crop varieties placement on the basis of analysis of their adaptability to the impact of temperature stresses

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A radical increase in fruit crop yields requires new knowledge about the protective and adaptive reactions of specific varieties to the limits of their growing environment. The purpose of the research is to develop new scientific approaches to increasing the yields of fruit crop varieties by obtaining new knowledge about the degree of their adaptability to adverse temperature conditions in the winter and spring period, using the example of a peach in the Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria. Data from long-term observations on crop losses of three peach varieties with minimum air temperatures for the period from 1985 to 2024 were compared. in the Steppe, Foothill and Mountain gardening zones of the Republic. Using geoinformation systems, spatial and temporal scenarios and a forecast of land suitability by 2040 have been constructed while maintaining the identified trends. The values of critical temperatures of peach varieties by development phases are established, and the probability of crop losses is estimated on average for two ranges of years: 1985–2000 and 2001–2024, taking into account the cyclical climate. Spatial modeling has shown that despite the observed climate changes in the research area towards an increase in average air temperatures, in recent decades, in general, the likelihood of critical air temperatures in the Republic, especially in the mountains and foothills, has increased. A joint analysis of the created maps of the suitability of land for growing peaches as of 2024 and forecast scenarios of the suitability of land in the region for 2040. It allows us to identify lands whose suitability, while maintaining existing trends, will not change by 2040, either improve to acceptable values, or remain low and even worsen. The proposed approach makes it possible to plan the placement of varieties of perennial fruit crops, taking into account global climate changes. Within the framework of this approach, only trends in changes in critical temperatures of the winter-spring period at various heights of the terrain are taken into account.

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Sobre autores

I. Dragavtseva

North Caucasian Federal Scientific Center of Horticulture, Viticulture and Winemaking

Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: savin_iyu@esoil.ru

доктор сельскохозяйственных наук

Rússia, Krasnodar

I. Savin

Federal Research Center "Dokuchaev Soil Science Institute"; Institute of Environmental Engineering of Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia

Email: savin_iyu@esoil.ru

доктор сельскохозяйственных наук, академик РАН

Rússia, Moskva; Moskva

A. Klyukina

North Caucasian Federal Scientific Center of Horticulture, Viticulture and Winemaking

Email: savin_iyu@esoil.ru
Rússia, Krasnodar

Z. Akhmatova

North Caucasus Institute of Mountain and Foothill Horticulture

Email: savin_iyu@esoil.ru

кандидат сельскохозяйственных наук

Rússia, Nalchik

V. Nikolenko

Vernadsky Crimean Federal University

Email: savin_iyu@esoil.ru

кандидат биологических наук

Rússia, Respublika Krym, Simferopol’

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2. Fig. 1. Suitability of KBR lands for growing the Naryadny Nikitsky variety, % of the total territory: a – 1985–2000; b – 2001–2024.

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3. Fig. 2. Suitability of the KBR lands for growing the Nadiya variety, % of the total territory: a – for 1985–2000; b – for 2001–2024.

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4. Fig. 3. Forecast scenario of the suitability of the KBR lands for growing peach varieties in 2040: a – Naryadny Nikitsky; b – Nadiya.

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5. Fig. 4. Promising lands for expanding peach plantings in the KBR: a – Naryadny Nikitsky; b – Nadiya; rec – stably suitable, rec_u – will become suitable within the next 20 years, no – not recommended.

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