METHODICAL APPROACH DETERMINING THE DURATION OF THE LIFE CYCLE STAGES OF HIGH-TECH MILITARY PRODUCTS UNDER UNCERTAINTY

The formation of plans for the implementation of the life cycle of high-tech military products is associated with the determination of the duration of its life cycle. The transition to a new technological order, including digitalization, predetermine a significant complication of new technology, the process of its creation and operation, which, in turn, affects the timing of its life cycle stages and requires taking into account the uncertainty factor. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodological apparatus for determining the duration of the life cycle stages of high - tech military products under uncertainty. Researches in the field of duration of realization of stages of life cycle of hi-tech production which are carried out within development of methodology of management of innovative projects and program-target planning, the considerable attention is paid to domestic [Babkin, Ivanov, Ignatov, Kovalev, Kosenko, Kondratiev, Lavrinov, Podolsky, Stifeev, 2019; Burenok, Lyapunov, Mudrov, 2004] and foreign scientists [Leite, Teixeira, Samanez, 2012; Ries, 2011]. However, insufficient attention is paid to the justification of the duration of the life cycle stages of high-tech military products in conditions of uncertainty, which negatively affects the quality of the planned decisions. In this regard, the task of developing a methodological apparatus for determining the duration of the implementation stages of the life cycle of high-tech military products in conditions of uncertainty is urgent. Outlined in this article has a practical orientation and has novelty, which is expressed in the ability to estimate the duration of the implementation life-cycle stages with different degree of maturity of the appearance of high-tech products, solve at its creation, tasks and composition of performed works, as well as uncertainty of information, which increases with the period of the plan. The developed methodological apparatus can be used in the development of information and analytical system for determining and analyzing the duration of the life cycle stages of high-tech military products under uncertainty.

high-tech products, life cycle, uncertainty, military products, forecasting, duration, life cycle stage