Transformation of Human Capital across Regions of Russia

The aim of the work is to assess the impact of socio-economic factors on the increase in birth rate and human capital in Russian regions. This would allow determining an imperative basis of the human capital transformation and offering a choice of effective macroeconomic regulators. As studies have shown, the total fertility rate (TFR) correlates the most with the following socio-economic indices across Russian federal districts: the share of the population with tertiary education (ETR) for which r = -0.56 and the share of the rural population (PR) for which r = 0.65. Analysis of the cumulative effect of various indicators on the TFR reveals that the highest correlation of r = 0.67 across Russian federal districts is achieved with a predictor composed of ETR-0.65 and PR-0.35. Correlation between financing maternity capital and TFR from 2010 to 2018 is r = 0.84. Introduction of maternity capital contributes to ETR growth mainly due to increasing proportion between the number of the second and subsequent children and the number of the first-borns. Correlation between these dependencies is r = 0.98 and so proves their high statistical interdependence. Just few factors (forces) contributing to the birth rate growth strengthen their influence whereas most of them lose it. On the contrary, many of the anti- fertility forces are on the rise yet a significant part of them could potentially be weakened. Financial support for families is the most effective measure to increase the birth rate in Russia. And to prevent human capital negative transformation, this support should be accompanied by initiatives in educational support for strata of the population of a high birth rate. Results of the work are applicable to the development of birth rate stimulation programs both at regional and federal levels.

human capital, tertiary education, total fertility rate (TFR), GDP per capita, correlation, Federal District, maternity capital, Human Development Index