Comparative Analysis of Economic Development Russia in the Long Term

The objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between the economic weight of Russia and its large neighboring countries (Japan, Germany, Turkey, and Poland) until the end of the 21st century. The primary research method is a systematic comparative analysis of key aspects influencing economic development. The analytical model is based on the dominant influence of human capital on economic dynamics. Among Russia's large neighboring countries, during the period from 2005 to 2023, Japan exhibited the slowest GDP growth by PPP with an exponential trend (3.0 times slower), followed by Poland (1.64 times slower) and Germany (1.4 times slower). Turkey's GDP growth by PPP was 27% higher than that of Russia, which outpaced the global average growth rate by approximately 16%. Russia's unexpected move from 6th to 4th place in the world by GDP in PPP terms is a result of the economy's heavy dependence on oil prices and a series of oil price crises in 2008, 2014, and 2020, which obscured the real growth of the Russian economy. It has been shown that periods of convergence in GDP by PPP between Russia and large neighboring countries (mainly Germany) have repeatedly coincided with military conflicts. These include the War of 1812, World Wars I and II, the Russia-Georgia conflict (2008), and others. In terms of population size, which is the most important factor in GDP growth, Russia has slightly outpaced Japan over the last 35 years (by 16.5% in 2023). Going forward, Japan's population will decline rapidly compared to Russia. The fastest-growing neighboring country, Turkey, will reach the closest point of convergence with Russia in population size by 2060, after which the gap will begin to widen. In terms of the proportion of the population with tertiary education (DT), Russia (57%) is ahead of the neighboring countries under consideration, but Russia's DT growth over the last 20 years has been only 3%, which is a significant problem.