Uncertainty of Disaster: Problems of Scientific Analysis

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The article examines the problems of the methodology for studying uncertainty using examples of disasters of a humanitarian and man-made nature. Using the apparatus of the theory of catastrophes, the ambiguity of the manifestation of uncertainty at various stages of the development of the catastrophe is shown. The manifestation of the phenomenon of absolute uncertainty during the initial period of the culmination stage of the disaster is noted.

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Sobre autores

Vyacheslav Klyachin

Academy of Management of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia

Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: klyachinv2023@mail.ru
Código SPIN: 3234-7668

Dr. Sci. (Law), Professor

Rússia, Moscow

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2. Fig. 1. A model of a man-made disaster.

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3. Fig. 2. Crisis as deterioration of the functioning of the System.

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4. Fig. 3. Crisis as the destruction of the System.

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