Uncertainty of Disaster: Problems of Scientific Analysis

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The article examines the problems of the methodology for studying uncertainty using examples of disasters of a humanitarian and man-made nature. Using the apparatus of the theory of catastrophes, the ambiguity of the manifestation of uncertainty at various stages of the development of the catastrophe is shown. The manifestation of the phenomenon of absolute uncertainty during the initial period of the culmination stage of the disaster is noted.

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作者简介

Vyacheslav Klyachin

Academy of Management of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia

编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: klyachinv2023@mail.ru
SPIN 代码: 3234-7668

Dr. Sci. (Law), Professor

俄罗斯联邦, Moscow

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2. Fig. 1. A model of a man-made disaster.

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3. Fig. 2. Crisis as deterioration of the functioning of the System.

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4. Fig. 3. Crisis as the destruction of the System.

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