Observed and Expected Climate Changes on the East European Plain and Their Influence on River Flow (Case Study of the Don River)

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The paper examines modern climate change over the East European Plain, and the response of river runoff to them in the Don basin. A significant warming of 1.8°C on average in winter at the level during the 1991–2020 period compared to 1961–1990 led to an increase in the number of days with positive air temperatures. There was an increase in the amount of total precipitation in autumn and winter, as well as the share of liquid precipitation in the winter season, with the greatest increase in the west and center of the study area. In the Don basin during the same period, the greatest warming in winter by 1.6°C was observed compared to other seasons and a slight increase in precipitation in all seasons except summer. There has been a noticeable intra-annual redistribution of the Don runoff since the 1990s compared to 1961–1990, which has changed the ratio of low-water vs high-water runoff. A significant increase in runoff was observed in all months of the year except April and May; in April it decreased significantly. The largest increase in runoff by 55.7% was observed in January. It was showed that almost half of the variations in Don runoff in January were due to thaws, and about 20% of its variability was due to changes in precipitation in autumn and winter, including liquid precipitation in December. The contribution of thaws in the formation of winter runoff, the frequency of which has increased 2.6 times over the past thirty years compared to the previous period, has doubled, and the influence of total precipitation, on the contrary, has decreased. Projections of climate models in the 21st century suggest a gradual advance of the border of the observation area of winter thaws to the northeast of the plain, leading to active snowmelt, an increase in river flow in winter and a decrease in floods. According to scenarios of moderate and aggressive anthropogenic impact on climate in the period 2061–2100, the designated boundaries may shift not only to the northwestern part of the Volga basin, but to the river basins of the European north of Russia as well.

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作者简介

E. Cherenkova

Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences

编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: cherenkova@igras.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Moscow; Moscow

A. Georgiadi

Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: cherenkova@igras.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Moscow

A. Zolotokrylin

Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: cherenkova@igras.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Moscow

E. Kashutina

Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: cherenkova@igras.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Moscow

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2. Fig. 1. Spatial distribution of meteorological stations in the Don basin (1 - Pavelets, 2 - Kon-Kolodez, 3 - Voronezh, 4 - Kamennaya Steppe, 5 - Kalach, 6 - Valuiki) (a), changes in temperature (°C) in winter (b) and the number of days with positive temperatures (days) in winter (c) at VER in the period 1991-2020 compared to 1961-1990, as well as their mean annual values (days) in winter in 1961-1990 (d). The Don basin boundary in Figures 1a and 1b is shown as a bold black line. The Don basin boundary up to Kazanskaya in Fig. 1a is outlined in blue, Kazanskaya station is marked with a triangle in red. Changes in winter air temperature are statistically significant at the 0.05 level throughout the entire VER. Significant changes in the number of thaws in Fig. 1c are shown by circles circled in black colour

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3. Fig. 2. Changes in total precipitation for autumn and winter (%) (a), the share of liquid precipitation in total precipitation (%) averaged over the winter months in the period 1991-2020 compared to 1961-1990 (b), the highest SWE values in the field (%) (c) and in the forest (%) (d) in the period 1991-2020 compared to 1966-1990 (c). The Don basin boundary is shown as a bold black line in Fig. 2a. Grid nodes with statistically significant changes in precipitation at the 0.05 level are marked with dots. Significant changes in the proportion of liquid precipitation and SWE are shown by circles circled in black colour

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4. Fig. 3. Scatter diagram (a) of water discharge (km3/year) at Kazanskaya station by month for the period 1961-1990 (1) and 1991-2014 (2). (2); multiyear variability of the number of days with mean daily temperature >0°C (1) averaged for meteorological stations in the Don basin up to Kazanskaya and the runoff (2) in winter (b); total runoff for autumn, winter and summer (3) and runoff in April (4) (c); and the relationship between the observed and calculated mean water discharge in January in the period 1961-2014 based on the stepwise regression method (d). The linear trends in Fig. 3b are shown as dashed lines, while the mean flow values for the period 1961-1990 and 1991-2014 are shown as dotted lines in Fig. 3c are shown as dotted lines

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5. Fig. 4. Multiyear variability of the difference of December-January total precipitation and snow water storage in the period 1967-2020 measured in the field in the vicinity of the weather stations Kalach (1) for the first pentad of February and Pavelets (2) for the first ten-day period of February (a), and in the forest in the vicinity of the weather station Valuiki (3) for the first ten-day period of February (b). In Figs. 4a and b eleven-year moving averages are shown in bold lines, polynomial trends of the 4th degree are shown in dotted lines

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6. Fig. 5. Spatial distribution of the isoline of the number of days with positive air temperature in January with a value equal to five days on average for the periods 1991-2014, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100 in the basins of the rivers Onega (i), Northern Dvina (ii), Mezen (iii), Pechora (iv), Volga (v), Don (vi) according to the CMIP6 project climate model ensemble. The Don basin is circled with a blue line, the Kazanskaya hydrological post is shown with an asterisk

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