Vol 88, No 3 (2024)

The role of climatic changes and adaptation measures in the formation of geo-ecological problems is considered, which are divided into the following groups by origin: (1) caused by climatogenic dynamics of intact landscapes and transformation of their ecosystem functions (these effects are shown on the example of taiga landscapes of the southern cryolithozone) or provoked by the negative impact of climatic changes on natural-anthropogenic processes and geotechnical systems (these effects are described on the example of periglacial geosystems disturbed by mining); (2) caused by anthropogenic transformation of landscapes and its consequences in the form of changes in the structure of the thermal balance of the Earth’ surface and moisture turnover in the surface atmosphere, which is manifested in the increase of thermal stress, droughts, floods, etc. natural disasters; 3) Caused by the adoption of urgent measures to combat climate change and creating risks to the favorable state of the environment. This issue is illustrated by the example of replacing the most important for climate regulation tropical rainforests with oil palm and soya bean plantations producing biofuel feedstock. In the context of consideration of the environment-forming role of living matter, the model of geographical organization of the biosphere is characterized, and the significance of its zonal-functional types for comparative assessment of the vulnerability of territories to climate change is analyzed. It is shown that modern landscapes representing them, differing in their heat and moisture exchange potential, are an important part of the Earth’s climatic system. The results of processing thermal infrared images for comparative assessment of homeostatic function of forest landscapes–the most important regulators of the Earth surface heat balance–are analyzed. The possibility of using near-surface temperatures obtained from the results of thermal infrared imagery processing for identification of landscapes with different types of ecological functions in the boreal cryolithozone conditions is shown. The indicative value of apparent heat fluxes that increase climate warming due to ongoing abiotisation of land in the form of progressive deforestation, desertification and impact of anthropogenic infrastructure is substantiated. The scales of atmospheric-ecological impact of deserted lands on neighboring territories under the conditions of atmospheric circulation changes are discussed. The conceptual basis of adaptation to climate change is formulated, which consists in the implementation of measures on greening and watering of land landscapes, restoration of terrestrial phytomass and ecological optimisation of the land fund of countries and territories on the basis of maximum consideration of the natural structure of zonal landscapes.

The aim of this research is to assess the nature of morphological pattern evolution related to climatic changes for the most typical landscapes in the permafrost zone, including lacustrine thermokarst plains, thermokarst plains with fluvial erosion, and floodplains, based on the probabilistic approach. Twenty-eight key sites in different physiographic environments were selected for study. The key sites were composed of different deposits, such as deltaic, lacustrine-alluvial, alluvial and alluvial-marine, fluvioglacial, and lake-marsh formations. Based on high-resolution satellite imagery, samples of quantitative characteristics of the landscape morphological patterns under consideration, such as thermokarst lake areas for thermokarst plains and arrow lengths of forming fragments for floodplains, were obtained for two survey dates with 40–55-year intervals. Samples for each site were compared using the Smirnov test. The probabilistic analysis of the quantitative characteristics of morphological patterns for typical permafrost landscapes over 40–55 years leads to the conclusion that the morphological pattern changes are rather limited. At the same time, a statistically confirmed evolution of morphological patterns is observed for a number of key sites of thermokarst plains, but the changes are practically not recorded within the floodplain landscapes in the considered time interval. The changes of morphological patterns are more intensive for the thermokarst plains with fluvial erosion in comparison with the lacustrine thermokarst plains, which can be explained by a more active response of thermal erosion to climatic changes in comparison with the thermokarst process. The observed changes in morphological patterns are limited to the western part of Western Siberia, but they show landscape differentiation even in the case of close location, which indicates the important role of sediment composition and geocryological conditions.

The forest boundary is characterized by being highly sensitive to climate change. In this regard, monitoring the distribution of forested areas on the southern and northern boundaries of the forest in lowland conditions, as well as the upper and lower boundaries of the forest in mountainous regions, is one of the simplest and most effective methods for studying the response of vegetation to climate change. In the western part of the Katun Range (Central Altai), based on the use of classical dendrochronological methods, the age of 891 Pinus sibirica Du Tour trees growing at different altitudes above sea level was established. Comparison of the altitudinal position of the upper limit of tree vegetation according to topographic maps of 1956 and modern satellite images made it possible to establish the rate of change in forested areas depending on the presence or absence of edaphic restrictions for the successful regeneration of tree species. It is shown that, starting from the second half of the 20th century. There is an intensive expansion of Pinus sibirica, the most common tree species in the study area, into the belt of mountain meadows and tundras. The nature and rate of colonization by woody vegetation vary significantly depending on the exposure of the slope and its hypsometric characteristics. The closest connections were found between the appearance of cedar and climatic indicators of the cold period (temperature and precipitation), this is especially typical for slopes with northern and eastern exposures. It was shown that the expansion of the forest was favored by a general change in climatic conditions in the study area.

Extreme low water on rivers (in years in which the runoff was equal to or less than 75 and 90–95% of the probability exceedance) in the river basins of the Russian Plain (Volga, Don, Dnieper, Western Dvina and Northern Dvina) in the 19th–21st centuries was studied. It is shown that the proportion of the total number of years in which low water was observed in one or several seasons of the year or the whole year varied on the rivers considered in relation to the duration of the entire observation period in the range from 46 to 57%. In the 1930s, low water years occurred in only one of the basins considered, and in the 1950s in several (from two to five) basins in the same year. At the end of the 19th century, in the 1920s and 1930s, and in the 1970s, there were seven years when low water occurred simultaneously in different seasons and in the whole year in all the rivers considered, and in nine cases in four basins. Modern global warming leads to a significant decrease in the number of low water years in the winter and summer-autumn low flow seasons and the year as a whole on all the rivers considered. While the number of years with low flood runoff on the Don, on the Northern and Western Dvina has increased significantly, and on the Volga and Dnieper it has changed little. During the long-term phases of increased/decreased annual and seasonal runoff on the rivers of the central part of the Russian Plain, cardinal differences in the frequency of low water years were revealed. In the years when the most extreme droughts were observed on the territory of all river basins considered, low water was observed only in 1921 and 1972.

An analysis of long-term data on seasonal, monthly and annual mean air temperatures, precipitation and wind speeds was carried out. It was shown that during the last 20–30 years there has been a seasonal intra-annual restructuring of temperature conditions: winters are becoming milder and summers less hot. The results of the cluster analysis of hydrometeorological data showed that the most pronounced features of the average winter air temperature are characteristic of the westernmost settlements of Leningrad oblast, such as the city of Kingisepp. This may be due to their greater proximity to the open waters of the Gulf of Finland, which have a warming effect. The coldest areas are the eastern regions of Leningrad oblast, far from significant water bodies, which form the second most important cluster, including the territories of the cities of Tikhvin, Lodeynoye Pole and the area of the village of Vinnitsa. The most windy areas, where wind speeds of more than 20 m/s are most frequently observed, posing a significant threat to the operation of various man-made objects, including power lines, ports and water transport, are the coastal areas of the Gulf of Finland, including, first and foremost, the cities of Vyborg, St. Petersburg, and Kingissep. Strong winds also have a destructive effect on forest ecosystems, causing windfalls, especially in coniferous forests on sandy soils, including in the Kurortny district of St. Petersburg along the northern coast of the Neva Bay. An increase in the intensity and frequency of atmospheric precipitation will lead to an increase in the volume of wastewater, which may threaten the drainage systems of St. Petersburg and settlements in Leningrad oblast. The need to analyse the current capacities of the municipal sewage treatment plants and to increase their productivity is justified. The values of hydro-meteorological parameters describing natural processes threatening the life of the population of St. Petersburg and Leningrad oblast have been normalised. Methodological approaches for a comprehensive risk assessment of climate change are substantiated, which can be used later for the preparation of climate safety passports for St. Petersburg and Leningrad oblast.

For several decades a panarchic type of social-natural system has been formed in the territory of the Imandra basin (Murmansk oblast): within certain time intervals the development of its “nature–society–economy” blocks can be multidirectional, multi-temporal and multi-scale. The modern system of nature management in the territory determines the synergy of matter-energy flows produced by the blocks, which reflects the panarchic nature of the system. The modern development cycles of the social-natural system blocks were analysed in order to reveal the mechanisms for achieving their renewal in accordance with sustainable development. This reflects the aim of the research. The analysis was based on the processing of thematic publications and statistical data, results of field ecological-landscape studies conducted by the authors. Different rates of transformation of the system blocks were clearly manifested in the 21st century, each block having different stages of development. The climatic factor controlling the development of the natural block was clearly manifested since the last third of the 20th century and stimulated the renewal of the system. The modern stage of development of the social block was characterised by the accumulation cycle of changes, and the economic block by the restructuring cycle. The socio-natural system of the territory during its development overcomes certain thresholds–turning points of its vectors changes. Signs of overcoming the threshold of disturbances destroying the natural block by reducing the anthropogenic load and intensification of the biogeochemical cycle due to climate warming have been marked. Harmonisation of development cycles is a complex management task, the solution of which requires an analysis of the specific characteristics of the system blocks, the existing obstacles to their development, the acceptable states of their restructuring and the objectives of their renewal. The socio-natural system does not have an absolute coincidence of development cycles, but the general equilibrium can be ensured by their convergence. Mechanisms have been proposed to accelerate the restructuring cycle of the social block for its renewal.

The formation of a settlement structure is a spatial reflection of the life activities (types and methods of farming) of settlers and, accordingly, is completely determined by local landscape and climatic conditions. Therefore, the main goal of the study is to identify the features of the formation of the medieval settlement structure of the Upper Volga region depending on landscape and climatic conditions and the periodization of this process. The most important practical tasks were establishing the landscape resource base and reconstructing the dynamics of environmental management in key areas, as well as fluctuations in climatic conditions of human economic activity. Based on a combined analysis of historical documents and published materials, the following were established: features of climatic conditions and the nature of the manifestation of adverse natural phenomena in the main historical periods. Landscape-historical studies were carried out at the regional (for the entire Upper Volga region) and at the local levels (for key areas). The assessment of the resource base was carried out on the basis of paleo-reconstruction of the landscape structure with subsequent ecological-edaphic analysis. Locational and landscape analysis of archaeological and historical materials in key areas became the basis for a retrospective reconstruction of environmental management and settlement structure of the Upper Volga region. The main periods of medieval settlement in the Upper Volga region are considered. The main attention was paid to the influence of local landscape conditions and climate fluctuations on environmental management and the formation of settlements. During the period of the medieval optimum at the turn of the first and second millennia, with a maximum at the end of the 10th century. The functioning of the Great Volga Route and the intensive Slavic settlement of its Upper Volga section begin. At an early stage, predominantly valley landscape complexes with the most favorable properties for subsistence farming were developed for settlers. During the Little Ice Age, sources increasingly record sharp climate fluctuations with manifestations of extreme negative processes, which leads to the “transfer” of settlements to higher and “warmer” landscape complexes of the interfluves.

Adaptation to climate change is the most important part of modern climate policy. It is particularly relevant for developing countries, which are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and have limited capacity to adapt to these impacts. The purpose of this article is to review the achievements and challenges of adaptation to climate change using the IPCC methodology, taking India, one of the world’s largest developing countries, as an example. The country is increasingly confronted with the impacts of global climate change and is responding proactively. Based on material from the IPCC, developments from other international organisations and Russian studies, the main methodological approaches to assessing adaptation to climate change and their evolution are considered. The main sources for India are government documents, national communications to the IPCC, state programmes and action plans on adaptation, scientific publications, media reports and statistics. On this basis, the following issues are characterised: (1) the impacts of observed and projected climate change on India’s population and natural and economic systems; (2) the vulnerability of life-supporting systems and sectors, with a focus on agriculture; (3) the main types of adaptation, including structural, social and institutional. It shows that the system for responding to the emerging challenges of climate change is being built from the top down, through strategic planning at the national and state levels. The country is implementing one of the basic principles of adaptation – the ‘co-benefits’ approach, where socioeconomic development goals are aligned with the climate agenda, thereby protecting the most vulnerable. Adaptation is considered a priority of climate policy in India, given the country’s lower per capita contribution to global warming than economically developed countries.

Adaptation to climate change is one of the highest priorities on national and regional agendas. Various approaches are proposed to assess the effectiveness of adaptation measures: valuation of ecosystem services, changes in total carbon stocks, ecosystem and community-based adaptation, actual climate change indicators and others. Currently, there are no indicators of the effectiveness of climate change adaptation measures in either the regulatory framework or the national statistical system of Russia. None of the eight SDG target 13 indicators are developed in the Rosstat system. In this paper, we examine the possibility of using land degradation neutrality (LDN) as an integrated indicator to assess the adaptation of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. We studied the territories of the administrative regions of the countries bordering the Caspian Sea, for which an analysis of LDN achievement was carried out in terms of indicators of land cover dynamics, land productivity dynamics and soil organic carbon stock dynamics. Land productivity dynamics play a leading role in the overall assessment of LDN for the Caspian region. The analysis of land transitions within the identified integral classes of productivity dynamics shows that the maintenance and change of adaptive potential and degradation risks within these classes is uneven. According to our calculations, the condition of land in a significant part of the Caspian region improved in 2016–2020 compared to the baseline period 2001–2015. In general, land productivity is relatively high during this period, confirming the high potential for adaptation to climate change in recent years. Intensified exploitation of pasture systems, natural deserts and croplands leads to their increased degradation, although a significant part of them remains stable in the face of current natural and climatic changes. Some natural deserts and rangelands (due to reduced anthropogenic pressure) and arable lands (due to the application of sustainable land management practices) are improving, but their share in the region is small. Forested areas account for a significant proportion of improved land, so it can be argued that successful forest management practices are a priority and have a high adaptive capacity in the Caspian region. The observed trends in land dynamics and productivity are in good agreement with recorded and projected climate changes in the Caspian region. This allows for a generally positive assessment of the experience of using the LDN approach in the Caspian region to assess adaptation to climate change.