The New Geography of Russian Oil Exports under Embargo and Price Cap

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Аннотация

The article analyzes the current dynamics of Russian marine exports of oil and petroleum products under the conditions of embargo and price cap imposed by unfriendly countries following the start of the Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine in February 2022. The article demonstrates that Russian oil exports have remained resilient to sanctions due to a shift towards alternative markets and active use of mechanisms to bypass Western non-market restrictions. Special attention is paid to the changing geography of Russian oil exports, which have rapidly shifted from the markets of Western countries to those of China, India, and Turkey. The changes in the tanker transportation of Russian oil and petroleum products following the embargo, as well as the tools used to bypass sanctions, including the marine transshipment of oil cargo and the use of a shadow fleet, are discussed in detail. The article analyzes the new economy of Russian oil exports under the conditions of external restrictions and the current trends in the pricing for Russian oil on the global market. The necessity of changing the existing pricing rules for Russian oil exports and switching to Russian pricing indicators, as well as Russian oil cargo insurance, is demonstrated. The task of creating an alternative financial and logistics framework for trading Russian oil cargos in the context of regionalization of international trade, due to the increasing influence of non-market sanctions, has been identified.

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Авторлар туралы

A. Gromov

Institute for Energy and Finance; Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas

Хат алмасуға жауапты Автор.
Email: a_gromov@fief.ru
Ресей, Moscow; Moscow

Әдебиет тізімі

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Әрекет
1. JATS XML
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2. Fig. 1. Structure of oil and petroleum product exports from Russia before and after the start of the SWO, %.

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3. Fig. 2. Offshore oil exports from Russia, mln barrels per day.

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4. Fig. 3. Dynamics of offshore exports of petroleum products from Russia, mln barrels per day.

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5. Fig. 4. Structure of offshore oil exports from Russia (by buyer countries), mln barrels per day.

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6. Fig. 5. Marine exports of petroleum products from Russia (by country of destination), mln barrels per day.

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7. Fig. 6. Offshore oil exports from Russia (by shipping basin), mln barrels per day.

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8. Fig. 7. Structure of oil tanker shipments from western ports of the Russian Federation (by countries of tanker registration), %.

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9. Fig. 8. Freight rates for Aframax class tankers transporting Russian oil from Baltic ports (by main directions), USD/ton. US$/ton.

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10. Fig. 9. Registered prices for Russian crude oil export grades and Brent price, USD/barrel. USD/bbl.

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11. Fig. 10. Change in Urals discount to Brent price, USD/barrel. USD/bbl.

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