Physical-mathematical modeling of multiyear dynamics of water-balance and snow-reserve components in Ob-Irtysh river basin

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Abstract

The possibility of use of the previously developed calculation technique of the North Rivers flow hydraulic records for the Ob River, the largest river in Russia by basin area, flowing under severe conditions in West Siberia was examined. The calculation technique is based on the model of heat and moisture exchange of the geological substrate with the Earth’s atmosphere, the Soil−Water–Atmosphere–Plants (SWAP) model, in conjunction with information support based on global databases of geological-substrate parameters and information obtained from observational data collected by weather stations within the Ob River basin. Uncertainty of the Ob River flow was assessed. Additionally, the ability of the SWAP model to reproduce multiyear dynamics from average values of snow reserves in the Ob-Irtysh basin was examined.

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About the authors

E. M. Gusev

Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Author for correspondence.
Email: sowaso@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

O. N. Nasonova

Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: sowaso@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

E. A. Shkurko

Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: sowaso@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

L. Ya. Dzhogan

Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: sowaso@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

G. V. Ayzel

Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: sowaso@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. The territory of the Ob-Irtysh basin.

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3. Fig. 2. The design scheme of the Ob-Irtysh basin and its river network. Light gray color indicates the river basin. Irtysh to the stock station Khanty-Mansiysk (2), dark gray - part of the river basin. Ob to stock st. Kolpashevo (3), the lower part of the Ob-Irtysh basin was not painted over to the stock station Salekhard (1).

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4. Fig. 3. Dynamics of the measured (1) and calculated (2) daily values ​​of the runoff layer p. Ob in the area of ​​st. Salekhard (a) and Art. Kolpashevo (b), as well as p. Irtysh near the station. Khanty-Mansiysk

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5. Fig. 4. Climatic (averaged over billing periods) measured (1) and calculated (2) annual hydrographs of monthly runoff layers of the river. Ob in the area of ​​stations Salekhard (a) and Kolpashevo (b), as well as the river. Irtysh near the station. Khanty-Mansiysk (c).

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6. Fig. 5. Dynamics of annual values ​​of precipitation (1), total evaporation (2) and effluent formation (3) for three selected parts of the Ob-Irtysh basin: the river basin. Irtysh to the station Khanty-Mansiysk (a), the upper part of the river basin. Ob to Art. Kolpashevo (b), the lower part of the river basin. Ob to Art. Salekhard (c), as well as for the Ob-Irtysh basin as a whole (d).

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7. Fig. 6. The values ​​of the uncertainty of the runoff p. Ob in the area of ​​the stock station Salekhard: (a) is the absolute uncertainty of the annual runoff (the black bold straight line is the average value of the calculated annual runoff for the calculation period, the dashed straight lines show the range of the absolute uncertainty of the annual runoff, the black and gray thin lines show the specific realizations of the annual runoff - measured and calculated respectively ); (b) the absolute uncertainty of the monthly runoff (black bold and dashed lines show the average values ​​of the calculated monthly runoff layers and the range of their uncertainty, respectively, gray dots represent specific realizations of the calculated monthly runoff layer values ​​in different years; (c) the intra-annual dynamics the uncertainties of the monthly values ​​of the runoff layer.

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8. Fig. 7. Comparison of the characteristics of snow reserves in the Ob-Irtysh basin area, obtained from snow measuring data and calculated on the basis of the SWAP model: (a) - dynamics of the river averaged over the basin. Both measured (circles) and calculated (line) snow reserves; (b) is the integral distribution function P over the basin territory of the climatic (averaged over the calculated period) snow reserves values ​​obtained on the basis of snow-measuring observations (1) and calculated using the SWAP model (2) as of March 31.

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