The structure of the future world order: controversial issues

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The article considers macro-trends and short-term trends in the transformation of the world order. The author introduces the classification of international relations systems and proposes an interpretation of their change patterns. The author evaluates the historical dynamics of the balance of economic and military power of states, the influence of technological progress, demographic trends, and ideologies on the architecture of the future, post-unipolar world order. Its contours are determined by a contradictory set of factors acting both towards multipolarity and towards a new bipolarity. 

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作者简介

A. Dynkin

Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO)

编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: dynkin@imemo.ru

академик РАН

俄罗斯联邦, Moscow

参考

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2. Alexander A. DYNKIN – Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician-Secretary of the Department of Global Problems and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, President of the E.M. Primakov IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

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3. Figure 2. Transformation of the capital structure in the US private sector Source: Total Factor Productivity for Major Industries – 2022. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/prod3_03232023.htm (accessed 02.12.2023).

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4. Fig. 3. The economic potential of the BRICS countries Source: Calculations by the International Monetary Fund, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the World Steel Manufacturers Association, the Institute for Energy Transformation. Statistical Review of World Energy for 2023, International Energy Agency.

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5. Рис. 4. Разъединение экономик Китая и США Источник: UN Comtrade Database. https://comtradeplus.un.org/ (accessed 1.12.2023); State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) of the People’s Republic of China. https://www.safe.gov.cn/en/ (accessed 01.12.2023)

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6. Рис. 5. Внутрирегиональная торговля: сдвиг в АТР Источник: Asia Regional Integration Center. Integration Indicators Database. https://aric.adb.org/database/integration (accessed 01.12.2023).

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7. Fig. 6. Economic dynamics of the EAEU and CIS countries Source: ECE. https://eec.eaeunion.org/?ysclid=lr7rtdg7np631919243;에프. https://www.imf.org /;The World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/(2023 년 12 월 1 일 접속)

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