The gas industry of the Russian Federation: evolution and effectiveness

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Abstract

The gas industry is one of the largest industries in Russia, along with oil production and refining. In terms of production and export of natural gas, our country ranks second (after the United States) and third (after the United States and Qatar) in the world, respectively. In 2010–2023, the share of production decreased in the old regions (Nadym-Pur-Tazovsky and Volga-Uralsky) and increased in the new ones (Yamal-Gydan and the shelf of the Caspian Sea). Production has significantly increased on the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas, which is associated with the commissioning of large deposits of Utrennoye, Yuzhno-Tambeysky and Bovanenkovsky. The article presents a brief history of the development of the gas industry in Russia. The influence of this sector on the economy of our country through budget and foreign exchange revenues is emphasized. The forecast of the development of production and export of natural gas is made, alternative points of view are given.

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About the authors

D. I. Kondratov

Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Author for correspondence.
Email: dmikondratov@yandex.ru

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Leading Researcher

Russian Federation, Moscow

References

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. GDP growth rates in the world, Russia and BRICS countries (excluding Russia), % y/y (year-on-year). Source: World Bank. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators/Series/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD#

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3. Fig. 2. Structure of fuel and energy exports from Russia (excluding coal), %. Source: Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, Eurostat and own estimates.

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4. Fig. 3. Russian gas exports in value (billion dollars) (a) and physical terms (billion cubic meters) (b). Sources: analytical company Kpler, International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers GIIGNL, Eurostat and own estimates.

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5. Fig. 4. Monthly dynamics of gas supplies from Russia to China, billion dollars. Source: General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation and own estimates.

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6. Fig. 5. Structure of oil and gas revenues in Russia, %. Source: Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-04/kremlin-oil-gas-revenues-up-by-fifth-as-demand-for-flows-rises

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7. Fig. 6. Structure of gas reserves in Russia by categories and regions, trillion m3. Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation.

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8. Fig. 7. Gas reserves of the largest countries as of January 1, 2025, trillion m3. Note: R/P for Russia, Iran, USA, Turkmenistan, Saudi Arabia, China and Iraq is calculated based on preliminary data for 2024, for other countries – 2023. Source: Oil & Gas Journal. https://www.ogj.com/exploration-development/reserves/article/55250010/ogj-survey-shows-global-oil-reserves-increase-while-natural-gas-reserves-decline

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9. Fig. 8. Gas production in Russia and the USA, billion m3. Source: International Energy Agency, JODI (USA), US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and CDU TEK.

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10. Fig. 9. Dynamics of gas production, export and domestic consumption, GDP and industrial production, 1990 taken as 100%. Sources: compiled by the author based on data from the World Bank and CDU TEK.

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11. Fig. 10. Gas production in Russia by region, %. Source: CDU TEK.

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12. Fig. 11. Gas production structure in Russia, billion m3. Sources: Gazprom and CDU TEK.

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13. Fig. 12. Gas production forecast in Russia, billion m3. Sources: Russian Ministry of Energy, British Petroleum and own estimates.

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14. Fig. 13. Russian LNG export forecast, billion m3. Sources: Russian Ministry of Energy, British Petroleum and own estimates.

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15. Fig. 14. World LNG and pipeline gas exports, billion m3. Sources: BGR, GECF, JODI, GIIGNL and own estimates.

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16. Fig. 15. Dynamics of Russian gas exports, billion m3. Sources: Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation and own estimates.

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17. Fig. 16. Forecast of Russian gas exports by destination, billion m3. Sources: own estimates and British Petroleum.

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