Volume 94, Nº 8 (2024)

Natural hazards and disasters are destructive, lead to serious material damage and a large number of casualties, and in most cases occur suddenly. One of these hazardous natural disasters is earthquakes. The article is devoted to studying the possibility of using fuzzy sets for processing Big Data to reduce the destructive consequences of earthquakes. The article proposes a new possible approach to interpreting the results of seismic zoning of the territory of the Russian Federation and neighboring countries.

The article is based on the materials of the scientific report made at the All-Russian Scientific Conference “Hazardous Natural Phenomena and Disasters: Causes, Consequences, Prevention Possibilities (Laverov Readings – 2024)”.

The results of the development of scientific foundation of technology for passive geohydroacoustic monitoring of Arctic seas are presented, including theoretical studies of the conditions for the origin and propagation of wave fields generated by induced geodynamic processes in the layered structure “lithosphere – hydrosphere – ice cover”, the solution of a separate class of problems within the framework of a fundamental scientific problem, related to the search for innovative, environmentally safe geophysical technologies to outline the local heterogeneities, as well as the creation of prototypes, laboratory and full-scale testing of prototypes of new generation ice-based geohydroacoustic buoys. The method for estimating parameters of floating ice (thickness, density, Young’s modulus, Poisson’s ratio) in passive mode was proposed and tested in a field experiment. Particular attention is paid to the state of scientific and practical groundwork regarding the possibilities of developing methods for passive geohydroacoustic monitoring of the Arctic seas.

The article deals with the regularities of distribution of manifestations of dangerous geological processes on the territory of Russia and the issues of their reliable forecast. It is demonstrated that local forecast of dangerous processes development is always directed to a specific object, phenomenon or group of phenomena within limited territories and implies the calculation of some parameter characterizing the stability of the soil massif, for which a certain calculation model is necessarily applied. And the success of the forecast depends on the quality of this model and the reliability of the experimental parameters entered into it. In deterministic calculation, the variability of causes causing the process is obviously or unobviously neglected in order to minimize the number of possible consequences. In the probabilistic variant, more possible combinations of acting factors are usually considered by enumeration. Unfortunately, it cannot be claimed that this increases the reliability of calculations, since the key point is the quality of the calculation model used and the consideration of the heterogeneity of the environment.