Метеорологический режим и лавиноопасность зим на Кавказе в конце XXI века на основе результатов моделей CMIP6

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По прогностическим оценкам лучших для Кавказа моделей земной системы CMIP6 при существенном повышении средней зимней температуры на 4–6 °С (согласно сценарию SSP-5.8.5) частота возникновения экстремальной лавинной опасности практически не меняется (из-за увеличения зимних осадков на 25%). При этом максимум зимних осадков в конце XXI в. смещается на март. По расчётам модели SNOWPACK наиболее типичной ситуацией к концу XXI в. будет формирование однородной снежной толщи с низкой плотностью, либо обводнённого снежного покрова. Эти ситуации не являются лавиноопасными, поэтому в 2071–2100 гг. ожидается существенное снижение повторяемости разрушительных крупных лавин из сухого снега и тенденция к увеличению числа менее опасных лавин из рыхлого и мокрого снега.

Об авторах

И. А. Корнева

Институт географии РАН

Автор, ответственный за переписку.
Email: tormet@inbox.ru
Россия, Москва

А. Д. Олейников

Московский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова

Email: tormet@inbox.ru
Россия, Москва

П. А. Торопов

Институт географии РАН; Московский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова

Email: tormet@inbox.ru
Россия, Москва; Москва

Н. Е. Варенцова

Московский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова

Email: tormet@inbox.ru
Россия, Москва

Н. В. Коваленко

Московский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова

Email: tormet@inbox.ru
Россия, Москва

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