State of the Greenland and Barents Sea ice cover in the context of current climate change

Мұқаба

Дәйексөз келтіру

Толық мәтін

Аннотация

In the long-term variability of sea ice extent, a statistically significant negative linear trend was identified for areas of the Greenland and Barents Seas. Using the method of integral anomaly curves, periods of steady increase and decrease in sea ice extent were identified. The period of predominance of negative sea ice anomalies was observed in the Greenland Sea since the winter season of 2000/01, while in the Barents Sea – since the same season of 2004/05, i.e. by 4 years later. The analysis of the age structure of the ice cover showed that old ice predominated in the Greenland Sea throughout the whole winter period, occupying no less than ⅓ of the total ice area. Seasonal maxima of absolute values of the old ice area were observed in December and April. They correspond to two peaks in the seasonal course of ice exchange through the Fram Strait, which determines the amount of old ice in the sea area. The Barents Sea was characterized by the presence of old ice only in the waters of the northern regions, but the amount of them did not exceed 4% relative to the total area of the ice cover. A comparison of the estimates obtained in 1997–2022 with results of earlier studies of the ice age in 1989–1992 for the Greenland Sea, and in 1971–1976 for the Barents Sea, is indicative of a change from a thick (old) ice stage of development to a thinner and younger ice (first-year) and, as a consequence, a decrease in the average thickness of the ice cover. To reveal the dependence of changes in the sea ice area on various hydrometeorological factors, statistical analysis with use of multi-regression models, namely the method of inclusion of variables, was applied. Various hydrometeorological parameters and climate indices were used as predictors. The found regularities made it possible to construct statistical models of long-term variability of the sea ice extent for the winter and summer seasons, the reliability of which is 85–95% with an efficiency more than 10%. The reliability shows the percentage of justified forecasts to their total number (respectively, it is expressed in %). The effectiveness of this forecast method (also expressed in %) shows its preference compared to the climate prediction.

Авторлар туралы

Ye. Mironov

Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute

Хат алмасуға жауапты Автор.
Email: mir@aari.ru
Ресей, St. Petersburg

E. Egorova

Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute

Email: mir@aari.ru
Ресей, St. Petersburg

N. Lis

Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute

Email: mir@aari.ru
Ресей, St. Petersburg

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