Improving time series forecasting by applying the sliding window approach

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Abstract

Our primary research involves forecasting the IT job market, where we study trends, residuals, and seasonalities. In this study, we focus on the impact of the sliding window technique on forecasting models. The sliding window approach in the machine learning process is aimed at enhancing the accuracy of the forecasting models. It involves partitioning the continuous time series into subsets of consecutive and overlapping periods, which enables the models to track temporal characteristics effectively. The experiment is carried out on various algorithms and integrated with the sliding window. The technique allows flexibility for models to adapt to changes in the data dynamics, which greatly reduces the errors in forecasting. The study shows that sliding window methods are quite useful for building dependable and adaptive forecasting models. LSTM, ARIMA, SARIMA, and Holt’s Model were used in this experiment with a dataset of 1 048 576 job rows with job-related information. Metrics such as MSE, RMSE, and MAE were used to test the models. LSTM was found to be the most efficient because of its capability to learn complicated patterns and long-term dependencies, and showed model improvement of 0.248 on MAE, 2.649 on MSE, and 0.162 on RMSE when the sliding window was applied.

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About the authors

Rebeccah Ndungi

St. Petersburg State University

Author for correspondence.
Email: Rebeccahndungi94@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0389-9758
Scopus Author ID: 58106191000
ResearcherId: rid66654

postgraduate student, Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science

Russian Federation, Saint Petersburg

Ivan S. Blekanov

St. Petersburg State University

Email: I.blekanov@spbu.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7305-1429
SPIN-code: 7473-1900
Scopus Author ID: 56149559700
ResearcherId: G-8844-2015

Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Associate Professor; Head, Department of Programming Technology

Russian Federation, Saint Petersburg

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. The architectural pipeline

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3. Fig. 2. Trend (a), seasonality (b), residuals (c)

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