Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in a number of European, Asian countries, Israel and Russia


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Аннотация

Based on the discrete logistic equation, the distribution of COVID-19 coronavirus in Vietnam, South Korea, Israel, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Germany, France, Sweden, Japan, Russia and the Russian regions was simulated. For each of the countries, the following parameters were determined: growth rates of the number of people infected with COVID-19 coronavirus, system capacity (the maximum number of residents who could potentially be infected). For each of the countries, peak times of the epidemic were predicted, the numbers at the peak and at the end of the epidemic, the increase in the number of people infected with the coronavirus COVID-19 during the epidemic, and the end dates of the epidemic. Actual data and forecast results are in good agreement with each other. Conclusions were drawn about the relationship of growth rates with restrictive measures taken during the epidemic. In almost all countries, the values of growth rates of the number of infected with coronavirus COVID-19 changed 2 times, passing from large values to smaller ones. A separate forecast was made for the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in Russia and the Russian regions. That is, the actual data on the number of infected with coronavirus COVID-19 in Russia were considered, minus the actual data on the number of infected in the Moscow region (Moscow and the Moscow region). The dates of the epidemic peaks in Russia, the trend of which sets the city of Moscow and the dates of the epidemic peaks in the Russian regions, are determined. For the Russian regions, 4 scenarios of the development of the epidemic with different capacities are considered. The value of the system capacity corresponding to the actual data for the Russian regions is determined in the vicinity of the peak of the epidemic. Depending on the capacity of the system, Russian regions will experience peaks from April 28 to May 4.

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Авторлар туралы

Eleonora Koltsova

Mendeleev University of Chemical Technology of Russia

Email: kolts@muctr.ru
Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Prof.; Head of Department IСT Moscow, Russian Federation

Elena Kurkina

Mendeleev University of Chemical Technology of Russia; Lomonosow Moscow State University

Email: e.kurkina@rambler.ru
Dr. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Assoc. Prof.; professor of Department IСT; leading researcher of Department BMK Moscow, Russian Federation

Aleksey Vasetsky

Mendeleev University of Chemical Technology of Russia

Email: amvas@muctr.ru
senior lecturer of Department IСT Moscow, Russian Federation

Әдебиет тізімі

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