Implications of the transition to the progressive scale of persons income

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Abstract

The article examines the impact of the transition to a progressive personal income tax (PIT) scale in Russia starting from 2025. The theoretical context and international experience in applying progressive taxation to personal income are presented. Based on the Laffer curve model, the fiscal potential of the current tax rates (13%–22%) is assessed, and it is shown that the system is currently positioned on the upward-sloping segment of the curve. The advantages and limitations of the current tax scale are identified, along with its socio-economic significance and possible behavioral effects. The article also proposes measures to ensure fiscal sustainability and social equity in the further development of progressive taxation. Research writing purposes: studying the consequences of the transition to a progressive PIT scale in Russia from 2025 and evaluating its fiscal efficiency and behavioral impact. The conclusions received during the research: it was found that the current PIT rate structure in Russia (13%–22%) lies on the ascending portion of the Laffer curve, indicating that there remains fiscal room to increase revenues without risking a reduction in the tax base. The progression supports social fairness and brings the Russian system closer to international standards. However, any further adjustments to the tax rates should carefully consider behavioral responses and promote transparency and voluntary compliance mechanisms.

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About the authors

Elena E. Smirnova

Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation

Author for correspondence.
Email: elenasmirnova@mail.ru
SPIN-code: 6926-9540

Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Taxes and tax administration Department

Russian Federation, Moscow

Irina A. Sergeeva

Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation

Email: ira.serge2014@yandex.ru
SPIN-code: 8018-5647

Faculty of Economics and Business

Russian Federation, Moscow

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. Dynamics of tax arrears of organizations and individual entrepreneurs in Moscow for 2020-2023 (thousand rubles).

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3. Fig. 2. Laffer curve in the context of personal income tax for 2025.

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