Climatic factors of the Volga runoff variability in the second half of 20th – early 21st centuries

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Abstract

The relation of the Volga runoff to the change of climatic factors, significant for the river runoff, is considered since the middle of the last century. The quantitative estimates of the impact of precipitation anomalies (taking into account the solid and liquid phase) on the variability of the annual runoff of the Volga show that the leading role of solid precipitation is detected in the period preceding the current warming (from the early 1950s to the mid-1970s), and also from the mid-1990s, with the onset of warming hiatus. From the mid-1970s to the 1990s, during the period of winter temperature growth, a significant increase in the role of liquid precipitation and their dominance in the variability of the Volga's runoff is observed. The differences between these periods are also noticeable in the percentage of liquid precipitation in the annual amount, which in turn has an ambiguous effect on the spring runoff of the Volga. The long-term trends of spring runoff and the share of liquid precipitation (in annual amount) before and after the mid-1970s coincide in sign. In the same time, there is a negative correlation between the anomalies of these parameters in interannual scale. The last indicates a decrease in the volume of runoff in the years of increasing the proportion of liquid precipitation.

 

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About the authors

V. V. Popova

Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: valeria_popova@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

E. D. Babina

Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences

Author for correspondence.
Email: valeria_popova@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

A. G. Georgiadi

Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: valeria_popova@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. Correlation of the annual runoff of the Volga with solid (a, c) and liquid (b, d) sediments (1951–2006); c, d - obtained according to data from archive I (corrected by all types of amendments [2], VNIIGMI); a, b - obtained from data from archive II (calculated on the basis of daily data on precipitation and temperature from the archive of VNIIGMI). The dotted line shows the statistically insignificant (at p> 0.05) correlation coefficients.

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3. Fig. 2. Changes in the observed annual (conditionally natural) runoff of the Volga in 1951–2006. (1) and calculated on the basis of regression dependence (Table 1) for 1951–1975, 1996–2006. (2) and for 1976–1995. (3). Straight lines indicate the linear trends of the observed and calculated runoff.

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4. Fig. 3. The relationship between the anomalies in the proportion of liquid precipitation (%, relative to the annual amount of liquid and solid precipitation) and the Volga runoff, km3, annual (a) and spring (b).

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5. Fig. 4. Change in the conditionally natural spring runoff of the Volga, km3 (1) and the fraction of annual total precipitation in relation to the sum of solid and liquid PL / PS + PL, (2) in 1950–2006. Shown are annual (1, 2) and 5-year moving runoff values (dark bold curve) and fractions of annual sums of liquid precipitation relative to the sum of solid and liquid (light bold curve).

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