CALCULATION METHOD OF PARAMETERS OF FOREST FIRES AS DYNAMIC PROCESSES ON THE EARTH’S SURFACE ON THE BASIS OF SPACE MONITORING DATA

Abstract

A simple method for calculating the parameters of a forest fire is offered. The method is based on the representation of a fire as a mobile set on the surface of the Earth. The information base for the proposed methodology is the data of space monitoring of forest fires.

Full Text

One of the areas where it is required to use methods of mathematical modeling and control theory is the protection and rational use of natural resources. As a rule objects that belong to this area are characterized by their spatial distribution and dependence on a large number of hard-to-control factors. A special group includes objects representing mobile sets or plane waves on the surface of the Earth. Forest and steppe fires, pollution zones of land and water surfaces, areas affected by plant pests, areas of soil erosion and desertification can serve as examples. The importance of studying such objects is increasing in connection with the increasing anthropogenic load on the biosphere and processes of climatic changes. Enumerated objects have different physical nature, different spatial and temporal scales, but under certain assumptions their dynamics including the processes of their control can be described in a unified manner. A forest fire can serve as an example to illustrate a set of problems connected with the study of these processes and the urgency, goals and objectives of such researches most fully. The problem of forest fires is very acute in the world today. In the Russian Federation, according to the data of an information system for remote monitoring of Federal Forestry Agency (ISDM-Forestry) 35,337 fires took place during the fire-hazardous seasons in 2008 and 2009, fire covered 15,565,510 hectares, including 9,772,782 hectares of forested areas [1]. Since forest is one of the most important strategic resources, the task of protecting forests from fires, including modeling and forecasting the spread of fires is an extremely important task.