Application of mathematical model of the spread of bacillary tuberculoses for estimation and forecasting of epidemiological situation


Based on analysis of the statistical data for dynamics of the bacillary patients the mathematical model of the spread of bacillary tuberculoses has been created. Results, acquired with the help of this model, coincide with the well-known epidemiological model, and prove the assumption the less than half of the bacillary patients are being diagnosed in Karelian region. The created model allows to forecast tuberculoses epidemiological situation depending on abacillarity, lethality of of first diagnosed patients and contingents, treatment effectiveness of the patients with plural drug resistance. According to the mathematical model, reduction of the abacillarity index among first diagnosed patients to 55% shall lead to deterioration of the epidemiological situation and to spread of drug-resistant forms of ТВ.

Yu M Markelov

Petrozavodsk State University

Email:; markelov@psu;

L V Schyogoleva

Petrozavodsk State University

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