Evaluating of prognostic value of biomarker and upper reference limit calculating

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Abstract

Objective: to develop algorithm of assessment of prognostic value of biomarker (troponin I) for predicting death after coronary artery bypass grafting.

Materials and methods. Data collection was performed according to prospective non-randomized clinical trial AMIRI — CABG in Pavlov First Saint Petersburg State Medical University, Saint Petersburg, Russia between 2016–2019 years with 336 patients. There is database with clinical, laboratory and instrumental data. Statistics were calculated with SAS Enterprise Guide 6.1 software. Prognostic capability of biomarker for death were evaluated with logistic regression. Spline of relation between death and biomarker level were plotted using coefficient of logistic regression and intercept. Upper reference limit was calculated with Youden index.

Results. There was developed algorithm to assess prognostic value of biomarker and its usefulness for clinical application and to define upper reference limit of biomarker. This algorithm could be useful for physicians and researchers for data analysis.

Conclusion. Presented algorithm of data analysis allows to assess prognostic value of novel biomarker and its clinical usefulness.

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About the authors

Nikolay S. Bunenkov

Pavlov First Saint Petersburg State Medical University

Author for correspondence.
Email: bunenkov2006@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4331-028X

PhD student, Department of Faculty Surgery

Russian Federation, Saint Petersburg

Gulnara F. Bunenkova

Pavlov First Saint Petersburg State Medical University

Email: gulnara533@gmail.com

resident, Department of Hospital Therapy

Russian Federation, Saint Petersburg

Vladimir V. Komok

Pavlov First Saint Petersburg State Medical University

Email: vladimir_komok@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3834-7566
SPIN-code: 3572-5180

PhD, cardiac surgeon, Department of Cardiac Surgery No. 2

Russian Federation, Saint Petersburg

Oleg A. Grinenko

Pavlov First Saint Petersburg State Medical University

Email: klinika@spb-gmu.ru

MD, vice-rector

Russian Federation, St. Petersburg

Alexander S. Nemkov

Pavlov First Saint Petersburg State Medical University

Email: nemk_as@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5152-0001
SPIN-code: 2853-4634

Doctor of Medical Science, Professor, Cardiac Surgeon, Department of Cardiac Surgery No. 2

Russian Federation, Saint Petersburg

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Supplementary files

Supplementary Files
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1. JATS XML
2. Fig. 1. Assessment of prognostic value of troponin I with logistic regression: Death30 — variable means outcome, 1 — death, 0 — survive; TnI1 — troponin I 1st day postoperatively; CPBTYPE — operation type, analysis performed for CPBTYPE=2

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3. Fig. 2. Results of logistic regression for model death = troponin I. The less AIC, –2 Log L the better. Convergence criterion satisfied shows significance of model

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4. Fig. 3. ROC-curve shows diagnostic value of troponin I for death predicting after on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting

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5. Fig. 4. ROC-curve of “perfect” biomarker (solid curve) and “bad” biomarker (dotted curve)

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6. Fig. 5. 95 % confidence interval for area under curve (Area)

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7. Fig. 6. Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness of fit

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8. Fig. 7. Upper reference limit and Youden index calculating

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9. Fig. 8. Optimal cut-off point value (cutoff) and Youden index calculating: prob — probability of death for current troponin I level (cutoff), sensitivity — sensitivity of biomarker, specificity — specificity of biomarker, Youden — Youden index

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10. Fig. 9. Probability of death depending on troponin I level first day after coronary artery bypass grafting

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Copyright (c) 2020 Bunenkov N.S., Bunenkova G.F., Komok V.V., Grinenko O.A., Nemkov A.S.

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

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