Probabilistic predictive mathematical model of chronic respiratory conditions to reduce the risk of disability in case of poisoning with substances with a pulmonotoxic effect.



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Abstract

In the experimental model of poisoning of rats with phosgene of severe degree (single administration in Tox dose 1 of Lt50 - 3.92 mgґmin/l), the parameters of the respiratory system and histopathological changes of the lung parenchyma were investigated. It was established that 45 days after exposure to phosgene, half of the surviving animals formed a complex of persistent physiological, functional, and structural changes in the syndrome of the syndrome and the chronic respiratory state (J68.4 ICD-10). The main independent predictors from the number of laboratory and functional parameters in the acute period of pulmonary toxicant poisoning (6 hours) were established by the method of mathematical analysis, on the basis of which a model was developed to predict the likelihood of chronic respiratory states in poisoned animals as consequences of severe phosgene poisoning. It is shown that an increase in the concentration of lipid peroxidation products in the blood plasma by 25% determines the likelihood of late effects of more than 0.95. The obtained mathematical model will allow predicting the characteristics of the flow of affected, in need of emergency medical prevention of chronic respiratory conditions in the provision of medical care in the acute period of pulmonary toxicity poisoning.

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