Email this article Long-term forecast model of spring runoff on the Belaya river
- Authors: Vasil’ev D.Y.1,2, Vodopyanov V.V.1, Zayzeva G.S.3, Zakirzyanov S.I.1, Semenov V.V.2,4, Sivokhip Z.T.5, Chibilev A.A.5
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Affiliations:
- Ufa State Aviation Technical University
- Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences
- Bashkir Department of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring
- Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences
- Institute of Steppe of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
- Issue: Vol 486, No 6 (2019)
- Pages: 723-726
- Section: Geophysics
- URL: https://journals.eco-vector.com/0869-5652/article/view/14521
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869-56524866723-726
- ID: 14521
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Abstract
This article presents the results of long-term forecasting of spring runoff in the Belaya River basin, based on the water balance model. To optimize the structure and parameters of the water balance model equations, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was used to impose restrictions on the input data values. The obtained values of the equations’ coefficients were checked according to the criterion D/s adopted in the hydrometeorological service. The reliability of the predictive method used was assessed by statistical calculations of the stability of their parameters and test calculations on an independent sample. All equations obtained during the numerical experiment may be suitable to make forecasts.
About the authors
D. Yu. Vasil’ev
Ufa State Aviation Technical University; Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Author for correspondence.
Email: vasilevdy@ugatu.su
Russian Federation, 12, K.Marx street, Ufa, 450008; 3, Pizevsky, Moscow, 119017
V. V. Vodopyanov
Ufa State Aviation Technical University
Email: vasilevdy@ugatu.su
Russian Federation, 12, K.Marx street, Ufa, 450008
G. S. Zayzeva
Bashkir Department of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring
Email: vasilevdy@ugatu.su
Russian Federation, 25/2, R. Sorge street, Ufa., 450059
Sh. I. Zakirzyanov
Ufa State Aviation Technical University
Email: vasilevdy@ugatu.su
Russian Federation, 12, K.Marx street, Ufa, 450008
V. V. Semenov
Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: vasilevdy@ugatu.su
Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation, 3, Pizevsky, Moscow, 119017; 29, Staromonetny, Moscow, 119017Zh. T. Sivokhip
Institute of Steppe of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: vasilevdy@ugatu.su
Russian Federation, 11, Pionerskaya street, Orenburg, 460000
A. A. Chibilev
Institute of Steppe of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: vasilevdy@ugatu.su
Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation, 11, Pionerskaya street, Orenburg, 460000References
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